This OECD note provides illustrative estimates of the initial direct impact of shutdowns, based on an analysis of sectoral output and consumption patterns across countries and an assumption of common effects within each sector and spending category in all countries. This approach suggests that the initial direct impact of the shutdowns could be a decline in the level of output of between one-fifth to one-quarter in many economies, with consumers’ expenditure potentially dropping by around one-third. Changes of this magnitude would far outweigh anything experienced during the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This broad estimate only covers the initial direct impact in the sectors involved and does not take into account any additional indirect impacts that may arise.
FIS Digital – June 2020
Florida: Opportunities in a crisis
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
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Emerging economies: Rich opportunities
Investment opportunities in emerging markets include high yields on local government debt and cheap currencies, while China's Renminbi has proven its resilience and is now considered a safe asset currency according to chief economist at Pictet Asset Management, Patrick Zweifel.
COVID-19 vaccination by year-end: Oxford
The only solution to the problem of COVID-19 is a vaccination. Oxford University's Jenner Institute is one of the organization's racing to provide a vaccine, and it's director Adrian Hill believes the Institute could have cracked it by year-end.
Distressed debt: No repeat of 2008
Founder of SVPGlobal, Victor Khosla tells FIS 2020 delegates that although the opportunities in distressed debt are significant, investors should pick and choose. It's not like 2008.
Real estate: The winners and losers
Real estate is one of the asset classes hardest hit by the pandemic. Although FIS 2020 experts warn that some companies may never return to the office, opportunities are already appearing in smaller, regional hubs while listed real estate will recover quicker than private investments.
Asset management’s new purpose
CEO of Franklin Templeton, Jenny Johnson, said asset managers need to do more, particularly in boosting diversity and inclusion in the underlying companies they own. She said the industry needed to do more to ensure capital is available to black-run and female-run businesses.
MP3 dangerous but necessary
Current fiscal and monetary policies are taking the world down a necessary, but dangerous path, according to co-CIO of Bridgewater Greg Jensen. He told investors asset allocations should focus on diversification, and assets that benefit from fiscal and monetary policy moving together.
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