This OECD note provides illustrative estimates of the initial direct impact of shutdowns, based on an analysis of sectoral output and consumption patterns across countries and an assumption of common effects within each sector and spending category in all countries. This approach suggests that the initial direct impact of the shutdowns could be a decline in the level of output of between one-fifth to one-quarter in many economies, with consumers’ expenditure potentially dropping by around one-third. Changes of this magnitude would far outweigh anything experienced during the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This broad estimate only covers the initial direct impact in the sectors involved and does not take into account any additional indirect impacts that may arise.
FIS Digital – June 2020
Florida: Opportunities in a crisis
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
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FIS 2020: Global Policy Response
Two ex-central bankers, Randy Kroszner and Lucrezia Reichlin, said that central banks were doing everything they could to ensure markets continue to function. They said inflation was unlikely.
Society isn’t working: Larry Summers
Former Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, questioned the successful functioning of US democracy and America’s continued ability to “lead the world”.
FIS 2020: Positioning portfolios
For some investors, plunging equity valuations in March were an opportunity to ‘get back in’ at reasonable prices. More recently the rapid recovery has been a cause to position conservatively once again.
FIS 2020: The policy response
FIS 2020 will discuss how the unprecedented government stimulus in response to the pandemic could affect investor returns and specific allocations. Areas of concern include a sharp rise in zombie companies kept afloat by government support.
What does the future look like
Given the disruption and chaos currently facing the world, society and economies, this session looks at what an imagined future would look like.
The vaccine
This session looks at the development of a vaccine for COVID-19 and what cooperation is needed to fight the virus.
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