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This session will examine the impact of the crisis on China, the likely projection of its recovery and the role for the private sector.[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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title=”Speaker” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
COVID-19 has accelerated issues that already existed in China.
Some fear China’s significantly rising debt levels. Other worry more about the political implications of a rapid slowdown in growth. The latter group won the debate and settled on 6 per cent GDP growth for 2020. However, COVID-19 has derailed this.
Western economists don’t understand what GDP means in the Chinese context because China has a different accounting treatment of GDP. China’s publicly released numbers don’t include a GDP write down for bad investments.
Chinese growth is challenged because of high unemployment (around 20 per cent), a shift from consumption to saving and a lack of business investment.
If monetary policy can’t accommodate a significant increase in debt, enormous disruptions will impact the Chinese economy.
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Poll results
In 10 years time will your geographic investment allocation to China be:[vc_line_chart x_values=”” values=”%5B%7B%22title%22%3A%220-5%25%20(21%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2221%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22blue%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%225-10%25%20(26%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2226%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22pink%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2210-15%25%20(33%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2233%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22orange%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%235aa1e3%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2215-20%25%20(16%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2216%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22turquoise%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%23ff675b%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2220%2B%25%20(5%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%225%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22mulled-wine%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%2350485b%22%7D%5D”]
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