[vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
This session will examine the impact of the crisis on China, the likely projection of its recovery and the role for the private sector.[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Michael%20Pettis%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Professor%20of%20Finance%2C%20Guanghua%20School%20of%20Management%2C%20Peking%20University%3B%20Senior%20Fellow%2C%20Carnegie-Tsinghua%20Center%20for%20Global%20Policy%20(China)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Michael%20Pettis%20is%20a%20nonresident%20senior%20fellow%20in%20the%20Carnegie%E2%80%93Tsinghua%20Center%20for%20Global%20Policy.%20An%20expert%20on%20China%E2%80%99s%20economy%2C%20Pettis%20is%20professor%20of%20finance%20at%20Peking%20University%E2%80%99s%20Guanghua%20School%20of%20Management%2C%20where%20he%20specializes%20in%20Chinese%20financial%20markets.%20%5CnFrom%202002%20to%202004%2C%20he%20also%20taught%20at%20Tsinghua%20University%E2%80%99s%20School%20of%20Economics%20and%20Management%20and%2C%20from%201992%20to%202001%2C%20at%20Columbia%20University%E2%80%99s%20Graduate%20School%20of%20Business.%20He%20is%20a%20member%20of%20the%20Institute%20of%20Latin%20American%20Studies%20Advisory%20Board%20at%20Columbia%20University%20as%20well%20as%20the%20Dean%E2%80%99s%20Advisory%20Board%20at%20the%20School%20of%20Public%20and%20International%20Affairs.%5CnPettis%20worked%20on%20Wall%20Street%20in%20trading%2C%20capital%20markets%2C%20and%20corporate%20finance%20since%201987%2C%20when%20he%20joined%20the%20sovereign%20debt%20trading%20team%20at%20Manufacturers%20Hanover%20(now%20JPMorgan).%20Most%20recently%2C%20from%201996%20to%202001%2C%20Pettis%20worked%20at%20Bear%20Stearns%2C%20where%20he%20was%20managing%20director%20principal%20heading%20the%20Latin%20American%20capital%20markets%20and%20the%20liability%20management%20groups.%20He%20has%20also%20worked%20as%20a%20partner%20in%20a%20merchant-banking%20boutique%20that%20specialized%20in%20securitizing%20Latin%20American%20assets%20and%20at%20Credit%20Suisse%20First%20Boston%2C%20where%20he%20headed%20the%20emerging%20markets%20trading%20team.%5CnIn%20addition%20to%20trading%20and%20capital%20markets%2C%20Pettis%20has%20been%20involved%20in%20sovereign%20advisory%20work%2C%20including%20for%20the%20Mexican%20government%20on%20the%20privatization%20of%20its%20banking%20system%2C%20the%20Republic%20of%20Macedonia%20on%20the%20restructuring%20of%20its%20international%20bank%20debt%2C%20and%20the%20South%20Korean%20Ministry%20of%20Finance%20on%20the%20restructuring%20of%20the%20country%E2%80%99s%20commercial%20bank%20debt.%5CnHe%20formerly%20served%20as%20a%20member%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Directors%20of%20ABC-CA%20Fund%20Management%20Company%2C%20a%20Sino%E2%80%93French%20joint%20venture%20based%20in%20Shanghai.%20He%20is%20the%20author%20of%20several%20books%2C%20including%20The%20Great%20Rebalancing%3A%20Trade%2C%20Conflict%2C%20and%20the%20Perilous%20Road%20Ahead%20for%20the%20World%20Economy%20(Princeton%20University%20Press%2C%202013).%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231909%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Speaker” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Chief%20executive%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20industry%20media%20publisher%20and%20conference%20producer%20since%201996.%20In%20his%20media%20career%2C%20Tate%20has%20launched%20and%20overseen%20dozens%20of%20print%20and%20electronic%20publications.%20He%20is%20the%20chief%20executive%20and%20major%20shareholder%20of%20Conexus%20Financial%2C%20which%20was%20formed%20in%202005%2C%20and%20is%20headquartered%20in%20Sydney%2C%20Australia.%20The%20company%20stages%20more%20than%2020%20conferences%20and%20events%20each%20year%20%E2%80%93%20in%20London%2C%20New%20York%2C%20San%20Francisco%2C%20Los%20Angeles%2C%20Amsterdam%2C%20Beijing%2C%20Sydney%20and%20Melbourne%20%E2%80%93%20and%20publishes%20five%20media%20brands%2C%20including%20the%20global%20website%20and%20strategy%20newsletter%20for%20global%20institutional%20investors%20conexust1f.flywheelstaging.com.%20One%20of%20the%20company%E2%80%99s%20signature%20events%20is%20the%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium.%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20events%20aim%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts%2C%20as%20well%20as%20promote%20the%20long-term%20stability%20of%20markets%20and%20sustainable%20retirement%20incomes.%20Tate%20served%20for%20seven%20years%20on%20the%20board%20of%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20most%20high%20profile%20homeless%20charity%2C%20The%20Wayside%20Chapel%3B%20and%20he%20has%20underwritten%20the%20welfare%20of%2060%2C000%20people%20in%2028%20villages%20throughout%20Uganda%20via%20The%20Hunger%20Project.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231893%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Fcolin-tate-839a5a181%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
COVID-19 has accelerated issues that already existed in China.
Some fear China’s significantly rising debt levels. Other worry more about the political implications of a rapid slowdown in growth. The latter group won the debate and settled on 6 per cent GDP growth for 2020. However, COVID-19 has derailed this.
Western economists don’t understand what GDP means in the Chinese context because China has a different accounting treatment of GDP. China’s publicly released numbers don’t include a GDP write down for bad investments.
Chinese growth is challenged because of high unemployment (around 20 per cent), a shift from consumption to saving and a lack of business investment.
If monetary policy can’t accommodate a significant increase in debt, enormous disruptions will impact the Chinese economy.
[vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Poll results
In 10 years time will your geographic investment allocation to China be:[vc_line_chart x_values=”” values=”%5B%7B%22title%22%3A%220-5%25%20(21%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2221%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22blue%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%225-10%25%20(26%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2226%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22pink%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2210-15%25%20(33%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2233%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22orange%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%235aa1e3%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2215-20%25%20(16%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2216%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22turquoise%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%23ff675b%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2220%2B%25%20(5%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%225%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22mulled-wine%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%2350485b%22%7D%5D”]
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
The Responsible Asset Allocator Initiative finds that 25 leading public pension and sovereign wealth funds, with assets of $6 trillion, are investing tens of billions of dollars in COVID-19 solutions and in funds to support stricken companies. Here they look at what the leading asset allocators around the world are doing to respond to the pandemic.
Global economic activities will not be back to pre-COVID levels until 2022 according to CPP Investments’ outlook, with the giant Canadian investor expecting the situation to get worse before it gets better.
The coronavirus pandemic sparked a surge of volatility across global financial markets. In this paper, MSCI looks at five key lessons for investors from the crisis, including that managing factors was more critical than picking stocks.
New research looking at the impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios – from opening of economies to no vaccine – suggests the economic consequences of COVID-19 under all scenarios is substantial and the ongoing economic adjustment is far from over.
Meticulous planning for the next market crash, and an eye on liquidity, meant IMCO was well positioned to invest, particularly in credit, when the opportunity arose. The fund continues to use its agility to its advantage and is now looking for opportunities in private markets.
It is critical to analyse how much COVID-19 could impact the US economy and stock markets but most of the traditional factors or economic indicators will lag the market movement. Therefore, alternative datasets other than the financial data show their explanation power to provide insights into the pandemic. This article, by academics at Tsinghua University, University of Illinois and Carnegie Mellon University, looks at the pattern of the market fluctuation from the perspective of alternative data.
Leave a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Login