[vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
This session will examine the impact of the crisis on China, the likely projection of its recovery and the role for the private sector.[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Michael%20Pettis%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Professor%20of%20Finance%2C%20Guanghua%20School%20of%20Management%2C%20Peking%20University%3B%20Senior%20Fellow%2C%20Carnegie-Tsinghua%20Center%20for%20Global%20Policy%20(China)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Michael%20Pettis%20is%20a%20nonresident%20senior%20fellow%20in%20the%20Carnegie%E2%80%93Tsinghua%20Center%20for%20Global%20Policy.%20An%20expert%20on%20China%E2%80%99s%20economy%2C%20Pettis%20is%20professor%20of%20finance%20at%20Peking%20University%E2%80%99s%20Guanghua%20School%20of%20Management%2C%20where%20he%20specializes%20in%20Chinese%20financial%20markets.%20%5CnFrom%202002%20to%202004%2C%20he%20also%20taught%20at%20Tsinghua%20University%E2%80%99s%20School%20of%20Economics%20and%20Management%20and%2C%20from%201992%20to%202001%2C%20at%20Columbia%20University%E2%80%99s%20Graduate%20School%20of%20Business.%20He%20is%20a%20member%20of%20the%20Institute%20of%20Latin%20American%20Studies%20Advisory%20Board%20at%20Columbia%20University%20as%20well%20as%20the%20Dean%E2%80%99s%20Advisory%20Board%20at%20the%20School%20of%20Public%20and%20International%20Affairs.%5CnPettis%20worked%20on%20Wall%20Street%20in%20trading%2C%20capital%20markets%2C%20and%20corporate%20finance%20since%201987%2C%20when%20he%20joined%20the%20sovereign%20debt%20trading%20team%20at%20Manufacturers%20Hanover%20(now%20JPMorgan).%20Most%20recently%2C%20from%201996%20to%202001%2C%20Pettis%20worked%20at%20Bear%20Stearns%2C%20where%20he%20was%20managing%20director%20principal%20heading%20the%20Latin%20American%20capital%20markets%20and%20the%20liability%20management%20groups.%20He%20has%20also%20worked%20as%20a%20partner%20in%20a%20merchant-banking%20boutique%20that%20specialized%20in%20securitizing%20Latin%20American%20assets%20and%20at%20Credit%20Suisse%20First%20Boston%2C%20where%20he%20headed%20the%20emerging%20markets%20trading%20team.%5CnIn%20addition%20to%20trading%20and%20capital%20markets%2C%20Pettis%20has%20been%20involved%20in%20sovereign%20advisory%20work%2C%20including%20for%20the%20Mexican%20government%20on%20the%20privatization%20of%20its%20banking%20system%2C%20the%20Republic%20of%20Macedonia%20on%20the%20restructuring%20of%20its%20international%20bank%20debt%2C%20and%20the%20South%20Korean%20Ministry%20of%20Finance%20on%20the%20restructuring%20of%20the%20country%E2%80%99s%20commercial%20bank%20debt.%5CnHe%20formerly%20served%20as%20a%20member%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Directors%20of%20ABC-CA%20Fund%20Management%20Company%2C%20a%20Sino%E2%80%93French%20joint%20venture%20based%20in%20Shanghai.%20He%20is%20the%20author%20of%20several%20books%2C%20including%20The%20Great%20Rebalancing%3A%20Trade%2C%20Conflict%2C%20and%20the%20Perilous%20Road%20Ahead%20for%20the%20World%20Economy%20(Princeton%20University%20Press%2C%202013).%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231909%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Speaker” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Chief%20executive%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20industry%20media%20publisher%20and%20conference%20producer%20since%201996.%20In%20his%20media%20career%2C%20Tate%20has%20launched%20and%20overseen%20dozens%20of%20print%20and%20electronic%20publications.%20He%20is%20the%20chief%20executive%20and%20major%20shareholder%20of%20Conexus%20Financial%2C%20which%20was%20formed%20in%202005%2C%20and%20is%20headquartered%20in%20Sydney%2C%20Australia.%20The%20company%20stages%20more%20than%2020%20conferences%20and%20events%20each%20year%20%E2%80%93%20in%20London%2C%20New%20York%2C%20San%20Francisco%2C%20Los%20Angeles%2C%20Amsterdam%2C%20Beijing%2C%20Sydney%20and%20Melbourne%20%E2%80%93%20and%20publishes%20five%20media%20brands%2C%20including%20the%20global%20website%20and%20strategy%20newsletter%20for%20global%20institutional%20investors%20conexust1f.flywheelstaging.com.%20One%20of%20the%20company%E2%80%99s%20signature%20events%20is%20the%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium.%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20events%20aim%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts%2C%20as%20well%20as%20promote%20the%20long-term%20stability%20of%20markets%20and%20sustainable%20retirement%20incomes.%20Tate%20served%20for%20seven%20years%20on%20the%20board%20of%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20most%20high%20profile%20homeless%20charity%2C%20The%20Wayside%20Chapel%3B%20and%20he%20has%20underwritten%20the%20welfare%20of%2060%2C000%20people%20in%2028%20villages%20throughout%20Uganda%20via%20The%20Hunger%20Project.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231893%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Fcolin-tate-839a5a181%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
COVID-19 has accelerated issues that already existed in China.
Some fear China’s significantly rising debt levels. Other worry more about the political implications of a rapid slowdown in growth. The latter group won the debate and settled on 6 per cent GDP growth for 2020. However, COVID-19 has derailed this.
Western economists don’t understand what GDP means in the Chinese context because China has a different accounting treatment of GDP. China’s publicly released numbers don’t include a GDP write down for bad investments.
Chinese growth is challenged because of high unemployment (around 20 per cent), a shift from consumption to saving and a lack of business investment.
If monetary policy can’t accommodate a significant increase in debt, enormous disruptions will impact the Chinese economy.
[vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Poll results
In 10 years time will your geographic investment allocation to China be:[vc_line_chart x_values=”” values=”%5B%7B%22title%22%3A%220-5%25%20(21%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2221%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22blue%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%225-10%25%20(26%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2226%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22pink%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2210-15%25%20(33%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2233%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22orange%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%235aa1e3%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2215-20%25%20(16%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%2216%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22turquoise%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%23ff675b%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%2220%2B%25%20(5%25)%22%2C%22y_values%22%3A%225%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22mulled-wine%22%2C%22custom_color%22%3A%22%2350485b%22%7D%5D”]
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
The COVID-19 crisis won’t have a lasting impact on climate change, but the response will—fiscal policymakers should thus aim to make the recovery green according to the IMF.
The Milken Institute is tracking the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. There are currently more than 2.5 million confirmed cases globally, 114 treatments in consideration and 79 vaccines in development.
In this memo Bill Gates shares his views of how to accelerate global innovation, which is the key to limiting the damage to society and the economy. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.
This lecture by professors of economics at the London Business School looks at the science, health policies, economics and macroeconomic policies related to COVID-19.
This report argues the G20 not only should but can be meaningfully useful to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It looks at the role of G20 in designing a fiscal response, strengthening access to vital medical supplies and ensuring global food security.
Investors allocate to private equity with the expectation of achieving superior returns relative to public-market investments. This approach has generally paid off in corporate private equity with return premiums that have compensated investors for the risk of illiquidity. However, the same cannot be said for real estate private equity.
Leave a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Login