China is a simultaneous threat and an opportunity for investors. This workshop looked at how to navigate a worsening geopolitical situation and what it means for economic growth. Is the current course a steady state, or are big shocks, for the better or for the worse, possible and even likely?[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Stephen%20Kotkin%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Professor%20in%20History%20and%20International%20Affairs%2C%20Princeton%20University%20(United%20States)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Professor%20Kotkin%20received%20his%20PhD%20from%20the%20University%20of%20California%2C%20Berkeley%20in%201988%2C%20and%20has%20been%20a%20professor%20at%20Princeton%20since%201989.%20He%20is%20also%20a%20senior%20fellow%20at%20the%20Hoover%20Institution%20at%20Stanford%20University.%5Cn%5CnAt%20Princeton%20Professor%20Kotkin%20teaches%20courses%20in%20geopolitics%2C%20modern%20authoritarianism%2C%20global%20history%2C%20and%20Soviet%20Eurasia%2C%20and%20has%20won%20all%20of%20the%20university%E2%80%99s%20teaching%20awards.%20He%20has%20served%20as%20the%20vice%20dean%20of%20Princeton%E2%80%99s%20Woodrow%20Wilson%20School%20of%20Public%20and%20International%20Affairs%2C%20and%20chaired%20the%20editorial%20committee%20of%20Princeton%20University%20Press.%20Outside%20Princeton%2C%20he%20writes%20essays%20and%20reviews%20for%20Foreign%20Affairs%2C%20the%20Wall%20Street%20Journal%2C%20and%20the%20Times%20Literary%20Supplement%2C%20among%20other%20publications%2C%20and%20was%20the%20regular%20book%20reviewer%20for%20the%20New%20York%20Times%20Sunday%20Business%20section%20for%20many%20years.%20%20He%20serves%20as%20an%20invited%20consultant%20to%20defence%20ministries%20and%20intelligence%20agencies%20in%20multiple%20countries.%20%20His%20latest%20book%20is%20Stalin%3A%20Waiting%20for%20Hitler%2C%201929-1941%20(Penguin%2C%202017).%20%20His%20previous%20book%20was%20a%20finalist%20for%20the%20Pulitzer%20Prize.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2244359%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Speakers” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%20%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Chief%20executive%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Tate%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20industry%20media%20publisher%20and%20conference%20producer%20since%201996.%20In%20his%20media%20career%2C%20Tate%20has%20launched%20and%20overseen%20dozens%20of%20print%20and%20electronic%20publications.%20He%20is%20the%20chief%20executive%20and%20major%20shareholder%20of%20Conexus%20Financial%2C%20which%20was%20formed%20in%202005%2C%20and%20is%20headquartered%20in%20Sydney%2C%20Australia.%20The%20company%20stages%20more%20than%2020%20conferences%20and%20events%20each%20year%20%E2%80%93%20in%20London%2C%20New%20York%2C%20San%20Francisco%2C%20Los%20Angeles%2C%20Amsterdam%2C%20Beijing%2C%20Sydney%20and%20Melbourne%20%E2%80%93%20and%20publishes%20five%20media%20brands%2C%20including%20the%20global%20website%20and%20strategy%20newsletter%20for%20global%20institutional%20investors%20conexust1f.flywheelstaging.com.%20One%20of%20the%20company%E2%80%99s%20signature%20events%20is%20the%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium.%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20events%20aim%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts%2C%20as%20well%20as%20promote%20the%20long-term%20stability%20of%20markets%20and%20sustainable%20retirement%20incomes.%20Tate%20served%20for%20seven%20years%20on%20the%20board%20of%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20most%20high%20profile%20homeless%20charity%2C%20The%20Wayside%20Chapel%3B%20and%20he%20has%20underwritten%20the%20welfare%20of%2060%2C000%20people%20in%2028%20villages%20throughout%20Uganda%20via%20The%20Hunger%20Project.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2244341%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Fcolin-tate-839a5a181%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
The biggest threat to Chinese growth is the lack of education and skills of its people.
Unless China can improve its education system, the country will remain in the middle-income trap.
China, unlike neighbours in Taiwan or Singapore, has not invested in its people to the same extent with an estimated 70 per cent of the population uneducated and only 30 per cent passing through high school.
China needs to invest in its human capital in other areas too. For example, poor diet and health in rural areas are a blight on productivity.
Arguments that China’s SOEs are crimping productivity, weak investment in the private sector and over capacity have worn thin by new trends like state firms seeking private sector partnerships to make them more efficient and private firms participating in industrial policy.
China will have capacity to navigate some aspects of climate risk via its strength in engineering and infrastructure.
China can navigate its demographic challenge by encouraging older people back into the workforce in the same way Japan has done. Under the communist regime, the retirement age is low; a substantial population in China are able bodied and retired.
Chinese companies score well on governance but the government scores badly; investors should explore the difference.
Wall Street firms (Amundi, Goldman’s and JP Morgan amongst others) are rushing to capture the Chinese savings market.
One consequence of China’s education gap could be the emergence of value-add economies in cities and coastal areas but struggling interior economies.
Investment in China today comes against the backdrop of a hardening narrative between the US and China and the risk of western policy makers creating a barrier to investment.
It has been easier for China to throw money into construction than build an education system.
The big difference between the vaccine rollouts and the scale of the stimulus measures across the world could result in a K-shaped global economic recovery, with much of the developed world booming but poorer countries continuing to struggle. However the
Investors discuss how technological change and the new green economy is re-pricing assets in infrastructure, as well as the trend to substitute fixed income with infrastructure debt. But investors should not to lose sight of traditional infrastructure characteristics in their quest to tap new trends. Predictable cashflows and downside protection remain central.
Research that looks at the relationship between economic transparency and defining investment qualities such as yield spreads, credit ratings and stock price volatility shows sovereign transparency helps improve the value of assets, enables countries to lower their borrowing costs and achieve a better credit rating.
Inflation holds investor opportunities as well as perils. Emerging markets, commodities and linkers do well in a climate of rising prices while central banks are likely to act quickly and aggressively in response rather than early or gradually.
The unprecedented level of government debt signals sub-par economic growth ahead, warned Farouki Majeed, chief investment officer, Ohio School Employees Retirement System speaking at FIS Digital alongside Rich Randall, head of global debt at IFM Investors.
Inflation is the number one investor concern and whether it is here to stay was the subject of much debate at the Fiduciary Investors Symposium. While its longevity is contested it was agreed that its presence has important implications for the correlation between bonds and equities which creates problems for portfolio design. Investors at PGIM, QMAW, CPP Investments and NEST discuss.
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