China is a simultaneous threat and an opportunity for investors. This workshop looked at how to navigate a worsening geopolitical situation and what it means for economic growth. Is the current course a steady state, or are big shocks, for the better or for the worse, possible and even likely?[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Stephen%20Kotkin%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Professor%20in%20History%20and%20International%20Affairs%2C%20Princeton%20University%20(United%20States)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Professor%20Kotkin%20received%20his%20PhD%20from%20the%20University%20of%20California%2C%20Berkeley%20in%201988%2C%20and%20has%20been%20a%20professor%20at%20Princeton%20since%201989.%20He%20is%20also%20a%20senior%20fellow%20at%20the%20Hoover%20Institution%20at%20Stanford%20University.%5Cn%5CnAt%20Princeton%20Professor%20Kotkin%20teaches%20courses%20in%20geopolitics%2C%20modern%20authoritarianism%2C%20global%20history%2C%20and%20Soviet%20Eurasia%2C%20and%20has%20won%20all%20of%20the%20university%E2%80%99s%20teaching%20awards.%20He%20has%20served%20as%20the%20vice%20dean%20of%20Princeton%E2%80%99s%20Woodrow%20Wilson%20School%20of%20Public%20and%20International%20Affairs%2C%20and%20chaired%20the%20editorial%20committee%20of%20Princeton%20University%20Press.%20Outside%20Princeton%2C%20he%20writes%20essays%20and%20reviews%20for%20Foreign%20Affairs%2C%20the%20Wall%20Street%20Journal%2C%20and%20the%20Times%20Literary%20Supplement%2C%20among%20other%20publications%2C%20and%20was%20the%20regular%20book%20reviewer%20for%20the%20New%20York%20Times%20Sunday%20Business%20section%20for%20many%20years.%20%20He%20serves%20as%20an%20invited%20consultant%20to%20defence%20ministries%20and%20intelligence%20agencies%20in%20multiple%20countries.%20%20His%20latest%20book%20is%20Stalin%3A%20Waiting%20for%20Hitler%2C%201929-1941%20(Penguin%2C%202017).%20%20His%20previous%20book%20was%20a%20finalist%20for%20the%20Pulitzer%20Prize.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2244359%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Speakers” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Colin%20Tate%20%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Chief%20executive%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Tate%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20industry%20media%20publisher%20and%20conference%20producer%20since%201996.%20In%20his%20media%20career%2C%20Tate%20has%20launched%20and%20overseen%20dozens%20of%20print%20and%20electronic%20publications.%20He%20is%20the%20chief%20executive%20and%20major%20shareholder%20of%20Conexus%20Financial%2C%20which%20was%20formed%20in%202005%2C%20and%20is%20headquartered%20in%20Sydney%2C%20Australia.%20The%20company%20stages%20more%20than%2020%20conferences%20and%20events%20each%20year%20%E2%80%93%20in%20London%2C%20New%20York%2C%20San%20Francisco%2C%20Los%20Angeles%2C%20Amsterdam%2C%20Beijing%2C%20Sydney%20and%20Melbourne%20%E2%80%93%20and%20publishes%20five%20media%20brands%2C%20including%20the%20global%20website%20and%20strategy%20newsletter%20for%20global%20institutional%20investors%20conexust1f.flywheelstaging.com.%20One%20of%20the%20company%E2%80%99s%20signature%20events%20is%20the%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium.%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20events%20aim%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts%2C%20as%20well%20as%20promote%20the%20long-term%20stability%20of%20markets%20and%20sustainable%20retirement%20incomes.%20Tate%20served%20for%20seven%20years%20on%20the%20board%20of%20Australia%E2%80%99s%20most%20high%20profile%20homeless%20charity%2C%20The%20Wayside%20Chapel%3B%20and%20he%20has%20underwritten%20the%20welfare%20of%2060%2C000%20people%20in%2028%20villages%20throughout%20Uganda%20via%20The%20Hunger%20Project.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2244341%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Fcolin-tate-839a5a181%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
The biggest threat to Chinese growth is the lack of education and skills of its people.
Unless China can improve its education system, the country will remain in the middle-income trap.
China, unlike neighbours in Taiwan or Singapore, has not invested in its people to the same extent with an estimated 70 per cent of the population uneducated and only 30 per cent passing through high school.
China needs to invest in its human capital in other areas too. For example, poor diet and health in rural areas are a blight on productivity.
Arguments that China’s SOEs are crimping productivity, weak investment in the private sector and over capacity have worn thin by new trends like state firms seeking private sector partnerships to make them more efficient and private firms participating in industrial policy.
China will have capacity to navigate some aspects of climate risk via its strength in engineering and infrastructure.
China can navigate its demographic challenge by encouraging older people back into the workforce in the same way Japan has done. Under the communist regime, the retirement age is low; a substantial population in China are able bodied and retired.
Chinese companies score well on governance but the government scores badly; investors should explore the difference.
Wall Street firms (Amundi, Goldman’s and JP Morgan amongst others) are rushing to capture the Chinese savings market.
One consequence of China’s education gap could be the emergence of value-add economies in cities and coastal areas but struggling interior economies.
Investment in China today comes against the backdrop of a hardening narrative between the US and China and the risk of western policy makers creating a barrier to investment.
It has been easier for China to throw money into construction than build an education system.
The big difference between the vaccine rollouts and the scale of the stimulus measures across the world could result in a K-shaped global economic recovery, with much of the developed world booming but poorer countries continuing to struggle. However the
Panellists discuss the possible impact of corporate failures on European banks coming out of the pandemic, and note central banks juggling act around digital currencies; unable to halt their arrival but still having to marshall progress and ensure the technology doesn’t weaken financial stability. The session examined the structural trends in the financial sector that have been entire amplified or altered by the COVID crisis.
Bridgewater’s co-CIO Bob Prince explains the perils of MP3 and suggests investors need to think differently, shaping strategies around cash-flow yields - connecting equity cash flows to stable sources of spending in the economy.
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The sharp market falls triggered by the pandemic brought the longest recovery ever in modern finance to an abrupt end. But despite the turmoil unleashed by COVID, it has not wrung out the market excesses of the last 13-year cycle. It means another wave of corporate failures could appear on the horizon in a shorter timeframe than expected, and offer more opportunities for distressed debt investors, according to Victor Khosla founder of SVP Global.
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