Post-lockdown economic recovery in China

The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.

(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.

(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.

(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.

(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35 per cent of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.

Read the letter here

Sponsored Content

Leave a Comment

Florida: Opportunities in a crisis

Florida: Opportunities in a crisis

The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.

Sort content by

Kotkin’s mega trends: Deadends & despair

Political regimes around the world are stuck in a series of dead-ends and despair. Most importantly, the China-US relationship has hit a brick wall as their fundamentally different values and interests clash. Deterrents and robust policy is the only way forward, says Stephen Kotkin, professor in history and international affairs, Princeton University.

Duflo says credit ratings punish poor

Nobel prize winner Esther Duflo suggests institutional investors can help alleviate poverty by fostering new supply chains and looking beyond a country's credit rating. She said there is an "unacceptable" level of poverty amongst Africa Americans and Latinos who are keeping the US economy going but dying for it.

Robeco hails the power of stewardship

Global asset manager Robeco has found proactive stewardship triggers important changes in corporate behaviour. Chief executive Gilbert van Hassel urges FIS 2020 Digital delegates to do the same.

Meng talks CalPERS leverage plan

In a fireside chat, CIO of CalPERS Ben Meng talks about how the fund wants to use leverage to push deeper into private assets, while Ronald Wuijster, chief executive officer, APG Asset Management said the policy response has made taking advantage of buying opportunities difficult.

Purpose set to drive investment

Investors should use stewardship to encourage purposeful companies that provide long-term value by meeting the needs of multiple stakeholders and helping improve society. But what is a purposeful company?

China’s growth conundrum: Debt vs GDP

Understanding the two policy making camps in China - one which is concerned about debt and one which is worried about a slowdown in growth - is key to understanding China's position in the global economy, says professor of finance at Peking University, Michael Pettis.

Previous