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How have different governments around the world responded to the health and economic crisis and what are some of the innovative responses that will stimulate the economy and ensure a sustainable recovery?[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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title=”Speakers” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Amanda%20White%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Director%20of%20institutional%20content%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Amanda%20White%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20content%20across%20all%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20institutional%20media%20and%20events.%20In%20addition%20to%20being%20the%20editor%20of%20Top1000funds.com%2C%20she%20is%20responsible%20for%20directing%20the%20global%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium%20which%20challenges%20global%20investors%20on%20investment%20best%20practice%20and%20aims%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts.%20She%20holds%20a%20Bachelor%20of%20Economics%20and%20a%20Masters%20of%20Art%20in%20Journalism%20and%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20journalist%20for%20more%20than%2025%20years.%20She%20is%20currently%20a%20fellow%20in%20the%20Finance%20Leaders%20Fellowship%20at%20the%20Aspen%20Institute.%20The%20two-year%20program%20seeks%20to%20develop%20the%20next%20generation%20of%20responsible%2C%20community-spirited%20leaders%20in%20the%20global%20finance%20industry.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231872%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Famanda-white-101a7515%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
Randy Kroszner
Everyone wants to know whether we are setting ourselves up for a crash.
Companies who are raising equity or debt and holding the cash can build a stronger “fortress balance sheet” to make them more resilient.
The question is whether and when the Federal Reserve can pull back their additional support to avoid inflation. However, in the short run the major risk is deflation, not inflation, and the Fed will do everything possible to avoid a deflationary scenario.
Lucrezia Reichlin
Monetary and fiscal policies in response to COVID-19 have been very different to the GFC period. We are likely to see increased innovation in coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.
One key question is whether Europe will be able to cope with individual country national debt by transferring risk between countries.
We should not be complacent of the possibility of inflation, however central banks have several instruments to counteract the potential risk, assuming they act in a timely manner.
A reduction of stimulus too early could result in a deflationary spiral.
Central banks will eventually think about how broad their investment mandate should be including sustainable investing, but we are not there yet.
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Poll results
What do you think is the number one potential unintended long-term consequence from the policy responses to the crisis? (for example inflation, or inflated asset prices)
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
Political regimes around the world are stuck in a series of dead-ends and despair. Most importantly, the China-US relationship has hit a brick wall as their fundamentally different values and interests clash. Deterrents and robust policy is the only way forward, says Stephen Kotkin, professor in history and international affairs, Princeton University.
Nobel prize winner Esther Duflo suggests institutional investors can help alleviate poverty by fostering new supply chains and looking beyond a country's credit rating. She said there is an "unacceptable" level of poverty amongst Africa Americans and Latinos who are keeping the US economy going but dying for it.
Global asset manager Robeco has found proactive stewardship triggers important changes in corporate behaviour. Chief executive Gilbert van Hassel urges FIS 2020 Digital delegates to do the same.
In a fireside chat, CIO of CalPERS Ben Meng talks about how the fund wants to use leverage to push deeper into private assets, while Ronald Wuijster, chief executive officer, APG Asset Management said the policy response has made taking advantage of buying opportunities difficult.
Investors should use stewardship to encourage purposeful companies that provide long-term value by meeting the needs of multiple stakeholders and helping improve society. But what is a purposeful company?
Understanding the two policy making camps in China - one which is concerned about debt and one which is worried about a slowdown in growth - is key to understanding China's position in the global economy, says professor of finance at Peking University, Michael Pettis.
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