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As opposing macroeconomic and geopolitical forces collide, chief investment officers at leading pension funds say that trying to predict the future is a “loser’s game”. The question today is no longer what comes next, but how to build a portfolio that holds together in any investment regime.
The risk of litigation and liquidity concerns mean America's 401(k) funds won't venture into private markets for five to 10 years, said T. Rowe Price's Michael Davis, speaking at FIS Oxford. But he said legislation has played a powerful role in shaping the US retirement industry.
Condoleezza Rice, the 66th US Secretary of State and current director of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said the new world order will have several characteristics of which there are already signs: more protectionist trade policies, a redistribution of security burdens, and louder voices for those marginalised in globalisation.
While the US remains the most entrepreneurial economy, China might now be challenging its technology leadership, while demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, and digitalisation are creating “massive opportunities” in almost every market, according to Macquarie Asset Management.
Former US deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger has warned that China could spark “a very serious crisis” in Taiwan without even resorting to a full-scale war – an escalation he said could occur within the current Trump administration.
Stephen Kotkin, global geopolitical expert and Stanford academic, has warned that there is an “increasing governability challenge in high-income democracies” where government departments face declining capacity to perform core functions due to complex regulatory systems and bureaucratic tasks.
Norges Bank is a lean organisation despite managing a $2.2 trillion portfolio. Across the fund’s four global offices, there are only 700 staff, or $3 billion per person, which is why it has made pursuing AI-driven efficiency a core organisation initiative – and a non-negotiable requirement for its employees.