Post-lockdown economic recovery in China

The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.

(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.

(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.

(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.

(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35 per cent of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.

Read the letter here

Sponsored Content

Leave a Comment

Florida: Opportunities in a crisis

Florida: Opportunities in a crisis

The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.

Sort content by

Greening the recovery

The COVID-19 crisis won’t have a lasting impact on climate change, but the response will—fiscal policymakers should thus aim to make the recovery green according to the IMF.

COVID-19 treatment and vaccine tracker

The Milken Institute is tracking the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. There are currently more than 2.5 million confirmed cases globally, 114 treatments in consideration and 79 vaccines in development.

Pandemic I: The first modern pandemic

In this memo Bill Gates shares his views of how to accelerate global innovation, which is the key to limiting the damage to society and the economy. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.

The economics of a pandemic

This lecture by professors of economics at the London Business School looks at the science, health policies, economics and macroeconomic policies related to COVID-19.

How the G20 can hasten recovery

This report argues the G20 not only should but can be meaningfully useful to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It looks at the role of G20 in designing a fiscal response, strengthening access to vital medical supplies and ensuring global food security.

Where is the illiquidity premium?

Investors allocate to private equity with the expectation of achieving superior returns relative to public-market investments. This approach has generally paid off in corporate private equity with return premiums that have compensated investors for the risk of illiquidity. However, the same cannot be said for real estate private equity.

Previous