This session examined the structural trends in the financial sector that have been either amplified or altered by the COVID crisis. It also examined whether post-COVID trends in the sector, such as the increased debt that has built up in the system, are likely to reinforce the lower for longer growth, inflation and interest rate regime or act as a catalyst for regime change. The speakers highlighted the most important waymarks for investors, including the intersection with post-crisis monetary and fiscal policy developments, offer thoughts on the likelihood of regime change and considered what that would mean for optimal capital allocation. The session also discussed the extent to which the financial sector’s resilience will be affected by physical and transition climate risk.
Click here to view Jeremy’s presentation slide[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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Key takeaways
It is important that fiscal policy now rotates from support to long-term stimulus. Outside the US where large public investment plans are underway, there is a danger that policy mistakes of the past will be repeated.
Inflation will be subdued going forward, with European economies, Japan, Australia, Korea and China struggling to meet long-term inflation targets.
Although remote working in the services sector could push down prices, the pandemic has also pushed up pay levels amongst low skilled workers.
People are confident in the banking sector but while some firms can handle their debt levels, others may have to restructure, and others may not make it at all. Corporate insolvency laws vary across Europe with different levels of efficiency regarding restructuring
Although central banks have opened the door to changes in the payment systems, they are reluctant to cede control or decentralise finance because of concerns around financial stability.
Central banks are looking closely at digital assets and involved in their evolution to ward off disruption from the emergence of private digital currencies.
Any transition from a heavily banked system or signal of a changing dynamic will see investors re-evaluate how they value the banking sector.
Any transition is a complex exercise for central banks whereby they can’t halt the arrival of new technology but have to marshal its progress and ensure it doesn’t weaken financial stability.
The big difference between the vaccine rollouts and the scale of the stimulus measures across the world could result in a K-shaped global economic recovery, with much of the developed world booming but poorer countries continuing to struggle. However the
Farouki Majeed is worried about the future. His concerns are centred around the implications of the enormous US federal debt; the global competitiveness of the US and Chinese economies; inflation; and the potential erosion of the value of the US dollar.
Should we be thinking about investment differently in 2021? Certainly, there appears to be cause for challenge of current thinking on inflation rates and the rise of China in the new world order.
2020 was by just about any measure, unprecedented. Market volatility, regulatory change and the need to make decisions quickly – but largely remotely – put more emphasis than ever on dynamic and effective decision-making in pension investment committees. It was a true test of robust governance.
The COVID crisis and the volatility of 2020 has revealed some lessons for the investment team at Coal Pension Trustees (CPT). It has taken a more top down view of managing its portfolio looking at economic themes, risk exposures, cashflows and its manager roster holistically. Amanda White talks to CIO Mark Walker about where it sees return opportunities, the prospect of manager consolidation and how it has embraced technology for better investment practices.
The challenge of matching long-term investing with development needs in emerging and developing countries is discussed by Georg Inderst who suggests it might be time for asset owners to look at their role in blended finance.
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