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An intimate Q&A with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, President Emeritus and the Charles W. Eliot University Professor of Harvard University.[vc_raw_html]JTVCb3B0aW4tbW9uc3Rlci1zaG9ydGNvZGUlMjBpZCUzRCVFMiU4MCU5RGh3bGFsemRvdjRteWF3YThwZGR4JUUyJTgwJTlE[/vc_raw_html][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Larry%20Summers%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22President%20Emeritus%2C%20Harvard%20University%20(United%20States)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Lawrence%20H.%20Summers%20is%20President%20Emeritus%20of%20Harvard%20University.%20During%20the%20past%20two%20decades%20he%20has%20served%20in%20a%20series%20of%20senior%20policy%20positions%2C%20including%20vice%20president%20of%20development%20economics%20and%20chief%20economist%20of%20the%20World%20Bank%2C%20Undersecretary%20of%20the%20Treasury%20for%20International%20Affairs%2C%20Director%20of%20the%20National%20Economic%20Council%20for%20the%20Obama%20Administration%20from%202009%20to%202011%2C%20and%20Secretary%20of%20the%20Treasury%20of%20the%20United%20States%2C%20from%201999%20to%202001.%20He%20received%20a%20bachelor%20of%20science%20degree%20from%20the%20Massachusetts%20Institute%20of%20Technology%20in%201975%20and%20was%20awarded%20a%20Ph.D.%20from%20Harvard%20in%201982.%20In%201983%2C%20he%20became%20one%20of%20the%20youngest%20individuals%20in%20recent%20history%20to%20be%20named%20as%20a%20tenured%20member%20of%20the%20Harvard%20University%20faculty.%20In%201987%20Summers%20became%20the%20first%20social%20scientist%20ever%20to%20receive%20the%20annual%20Alan%20T.%20Waterman%20Award%20of%20the%20National%20Science%20Foundation%20(NSF)%20and%20in%201993%2C%20he%20was%20awarded%20the%20John%20Bates%20Clark%20Medal%2C%20given%20every%20two%20years%20to%20the%20outstanding%20American%20economist%20under%20the%20age%20of%2040.%20He%20is%20currently%20the%20Charles%20W.%20Eliot%20University%20Professor%20at%20Harvard%20University.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2232263%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Speaker” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Amanda%20White%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22%20Director%20of%20institutional%20content%2C%20Conexus%20Financial%20(Australia)%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Amanda%20White%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20content%20across%20all%20Conexus%20Financial%E2%80%99s%20institutional%20media%20and%20events.%20In%20addition%20to%20being%20the%20editor%20of%20Top1000funds.com%2C%20she%20is%20responsible%20for%20directing%20the%20global%20bi-annual%20Fiduciary%20Investors%20Symposium%20which%20challenges%20global%20investors%20on%20investment%20best%20practice%20and%20aims%20to%20place%20the%20responsibilities%20of%20investors%20in%20wider%20societal%2C%20and%20political%20contexts.%20She%20holds%20a%20Bachelor%20of%20Economics%20and%20a%20Masters%20of%20Art%20in%20Journalism%20and%20has%20been%20an%20investment%20journalist%20for%20more%20than%2025%20years.%20She%20is%20currently%20a%20fellow%20in%20the%20Finance%20Leaders%20Fellowship%20at%20the%20Aspen%20Institute.%20The%20two-year%20program%20seeks%20to%20develop%20the%20next%20generation%20of%20responsible%2C%20community-spirited%20leaders%20in%20the%20global%20finance%20industry.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2231872%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linkedin.com%2Fin%2Famanda-white-101a7515%2F%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
The government needed to step in to contain the potential of vicious spirals caused by COVID-19.
We need a more effective strategy for COVID-19 because it has arisen not from the financial system, but from an external force, the virus.
I’m disappointed that there hasn’t been more ingenuity in the United States regarding testing and tracing… I’m disappointed we are not doing more to plan more aggressively for future pandemics.
A W or K shape recovery may eventuate.
Beyond the threat of COVID-19, there are profound questions around the functioning of American democracy, the complexity of the US-China relationship and public concerns around climate change and terrorism.
The US is supposed to be a democratic role model and yet roads are filled with potholes, male life expectancy is declining, racial injustice is prevalent, there is an unwillingness to support the idea of international community and educational standards are lagging much of the world.
The rest of the world has a very profound stake in the future of America and yet the US is, in many ways, a society that isn’t working. We are increasingly ineffective and polarised. This is a huge challenge for those that believe in a positive American destiny.
The fact that the government is so distrusted raises some very real questions.
I do not subscribe to the orthodox finance narrative that suggests excessive borrowing is the USA’s major issue right now. I am worried about the US budget deficit, but I’m more worried about the environmental and justice deficit and the crumbling roads.
It’s a mistake to think that an increase in inflation is inconceivable – things have a way of coming back over time. However, there are currently a number of deflationary pressures.
This should be the best opportunity ever for the leading universities to magnify their impact all over the world via digital distribution of content and achieving greater personalisation. I don’t know whether they will step up in this regard.
A great strength of US society has always been its resilience. I am hopeful that America’s best days belong to the future.
The US & China are like two people that don’t have much time for each other stuck in a 2-person lifeboat in rough seas far from shore. Can they find ways of accommodating each other to get safely to shore? This will require restraint from leaders that we haven’t yet seen.
For the election, there is 1/3 chance that Trump is re-elected, 1/3 chance that Biden is elected and 1/3 chance that Biden wins with a significant margin of victory.
If Trump is re-elected, the biggest thing we will see is the continuity of chaos. A Biden victory would bring a return to normality (which would be good for markets) and more prudent public investment that will support business. Biden would invest in trade peace not trade war.
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
Fixed income investing has undergone a sea change in the past decade. By tossing out some active management orthodoxies and embracing new technologies and quantitative techniques, we believe some managers are better equipped to capture unique insights and excess returns for their clients.
This paper identifies three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures and illustrate how they can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. It implies a year-on-year contraction in US real GDP of nearly 11 per cent as of 2020 Q4
The COVID-19 crisis won’t have a lasting impact on climate change, but the response will—fiscal policymakers should thus aim to make the recovery green according to the IMF.
The PRI is working with signatories to further develop thinking on what the COVID-19 crisis means for investors. It is establishing two signatory participation groups to coordinate and develop investor responses, focusing on short term responses, and a future economic recovery phase.
How can investors be a catalyst for change and have an active voice in a sustainable recovery? This episode explores the role of investors and how they can collaborate for effective collective action. It includes the work of one of the leaders in sustainable investing and the biggest pension fund in Europe, APG. It invites investors to have an active voice in a sustainable recovery.
In this note McKinsey & Company offers its latest insights on the COVID-19 pandemic, starting with a survey of the current epidemiology and the five dynamics leaders need to watch.
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