In this research report Watson Wyatt asserts the long-term outlook for emerging economies will impact positively on emerging market investments, but it warns that choice of asset class and implementation route are not obvious. The report suggests exposure to the macroeconomic dynamics of emerging markets will be most readily obtained in emerging market equities, debt and currencies, and discusses how emerging market economies will continue to grow strongly, due to a mix of rising productivity, economic and financial reforms, and favourable demographics. However, it states that institutional investors face significant complexity and potentially high fees when trying to build a portfolio that captures this long-term trend and should also recognise the governance implication of following such a strategy.
Research
GIC, Temasek eye trillions of growth in climate adaptation market
Singapore’s two largest asset owners, GIC and Temasek, see attractive opportunities in climate adaptation solutions – a relatively underfunded area compared to decarbonisation. The former has already made selective adaptation investments and said the opportunity set across public and private debt and equity could increase to $9 trillion by 2050.
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How Norway’s SWF deals with FX tail risk
From a risk management perspective, tail risks and return distribution asymmetries of investments are important to analyse. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) in this note describes a modelling approach that addresses some of the weaknesses of standard risk models. It uses the model internally as a complement to standard models to evaluate tail risk in foreign-exchange
Macro sensitive portfolio strategies
This research paper by MSCI defines macro-economic risk as the change in asset value due to persistent shocks to real economic growth. This definition underscores the role of long horizons in macroeconomic risk and the principal issue facing investors: how should asset allocation respond to large macroeconomic shocks, given that their consequences are likely to
What is intergenerational justice?
In the paper Pension Funds, Sovereign-wealth Funds and Intergenerational Justice from the Norwegian School of Economics, those Scandinavians have come up with something better than the national alcohol monopoly: a natty new finance term. “Intergenerational justice” (try saying it thrice after a glass of aquavit) seems to refer to a combination of two things: a
Handy Sandy:
analysing the hurricane
When Hurricane Sandy descended on the east coast of the United States and headed inland, it forced the closure of all the nation’s financial markets. Christopher Finger and Oleg Ruben at MSCI thought this was important because, although there are plenty of precedents for natural disasters in terms of economic impact, the storm was singular
The procyclicality premium
Moving with business cycles, procyclical stocks have been found to yield higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. William Goetzmann and Akiko and Masahiro Watanabe use 50 years of real GDP growth expectations from economists’ surveys to determine forecasted economic states in order to avoid the effects of econometric forecasting model error. The scholars created a
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