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Scenario planning and net-zero
“A forecast is a prediction; we’re saying what we think will happen. A scenario is different . . . it generally looks much further out and is trying to build a picture of the future in extreme uncertainty.” — Seb Henbest
Principles to guide investment
Investors will play a major role, whether active or passive, in climate change mitigation. To enable prudent decision-making, we propose three physically based engagement principles that could be used to assess whether an investment is consistent with a long-term climate goal.
The jump in US inflation is here. This is where it may head next
The highly-anticipated jump in U.S. inflation has arrived. While the sustainability of the increase remains open for debate, recent readings have surged and market-based indicators continue to show a surprisingly prolonged increase in inflation expectations.
Prepare for new Asia-led regionalism
Globalisation will be replaced by a new regionalism with Asia at its heart. Coupled with automation and AI increasingly replacing traditional labour-intensive production, emerging economies with a youth bulge face challenging time ahead, according to Ian Goldin, professor of globalisation and development, Oxford University.
Australia’s ‘phenomenal’ collaboration
IFM Investors is an example of asset owners co-operating for success. The fund, owned by superannuation funds, has leveraged leadership from its larger stakeholders and greater negotiating power.
The shape of Asia’s new cold war
China’s decision to demolish the “one country, two systems” arrangement in Hong Kong appears to be a fait accompli, and in fact seems to have been preordained. Viewed in a broader context, the move represents a major salvo in a new cold war that is already playing out across three critical dimensions.
The great lockdown
The global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 per cent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario–which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalises, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial.
Three pillars to the economic response
Academics at Chicago Booth looks at three important pillars of the economic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Federal backing vital for US innovation: Stanford president
Stanford president Jonathan Levin said the university’s top priority is maintaining the partnership with the federal government while safeguarding its operational freedom, as the institution balances financial reliance on Washington and political scrutiny from the Trump administration.
Decisions to Enable Net Zero Investing