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How are investors tackling the issues of de-globalisation and the impact on their portfolios?[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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title=”Speakers” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” 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title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]
Key takeaways
Kate
One of the mistakes we made at the Bank of England was that we thought the GFC would be over more quickly and we thought we could fix it on our own.
The GFC wasn’t really a global crisis. This time the crisis truly is global, and it’s more important that we get it right.
Central banks are less relevant in the pandemic because this is not a banking crisis. Thus far, policy response has broadly been viewed in a favourable light. Going forward policy may be less popular which will provide a significant challenge. Central banks will be concerned about the potential for stagflation
Do we really need the government to play a bigger role? The private sector has been remarkable throughout the crisis and they should not be taxed out of existence or prosperity to pay for the stimulus measures.
James
This is the most difficult investing period of my 30-year career because there is so much uncertainty. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument and has probably reached its peak effectiveness. This contributes to significant policy risk.
We shouldn’t be debating MMT, we should be debating the governance around it.
It is easy to talk about building a portfolio that is resilient enough to withstand any environment but this is getting harder and harder.
Given that many defensive assets don’t earn a sufficient return, balancing portfolio resilience and return can be problematic.
Olivier
There is much cause for pessimism:
Asset classes are exhausted and expensive in part because our frame of thinking is outdated.
Trust between nations is one of the most problematic issues.
We have realised that we have been short-changed by China.
We will have to choose between the US (who are letting us down) and China (who will not be a better master than the US).
Civil unrest continues and populism remains to be about me, me and I.
The EU suffered through the GFC (even though it started in the US) and also through COVID-19 (even though it started in Asia).
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
As trade wars between the US and China dominate financial markets, Princeton historian Stephen Kotkin has assured pension funds that the world order that has been in place since World War II remains intact.
Understanding the fractious relationship between US and China is more important– and simultaneously more confronting – than it has been in the past, according to Stephen Kotkin, professor of history and international affairs at Princeton University. While the China investment challenge has always been to capture the aspirational middleclass, the high-profile historian says “the big money that’s going to be made in China is going to be made from the dislocation”.
Institutional investors' investment strategy should be serving the China middle class and the dislocation from within Asia, according to Stephen Kotkin,Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University speaking at the Fiduciary Investors Symposium at Cambridge University. He explored what the geopolitical conflicts of the past can teach us about the future. He looked at some of the key points in history, how China, the European Union and the US have survived, and what it means for the future.
Whither United States-China? Stephen Kotkin, Professor in History and International Affairs at Princeton University and adviser to conexust1f.flywheelstaging.com, discusses the changing nature of the complex relationship between the US and China and the struggle underway as these two large economies find their positions in the economic and technological hierarchy. So what should investors watch for?
The China-US trade war is the latest development in a tense relationship that threatens to bubble over into war over Taiwan, “incinerating” portfolios, Stephen Kotkin said.
Global tensions are an important consideration in decision-making. At a recent roundtable, geopolitical expert professor Stephen Kotkin discussed the risks related to China and the US.
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