This OECD note provides illustrative estimates of the initial direct impact of shutdowns, based on an analysis of sectoral output and consumption patterns across countries and an assumption of common effects within each sector and spending category in all countries. This approach suggests that the initial direct impact of the shutdowns could be a decline in the level of output of between one-fifth to one-quarter in many economies, with consumers’ expenditure potentially dropping by around one-third. Changes of this magnitude would far outweigh anything experienced during the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This broad estimate only covers the initial direct impact in the sectors involved and does not take into account any additional indirect impacts that may arise.
FIS Digital – June 2020
Florida: Opportunities in a crisis
The Florida State Board of Administration has made some strategic moves to take advantage of opportunities in the dislocation, including in private equity, distressed debt and active listed equities.. But CIO, Ash Williams, is concerned about the underlying real economy.
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Deglobalisation will hurt growth
Even if the United States turns a blind eye to deglobalization’s effects on the rest of the world, it should remember that the current abundant demand for dollar assets depends heavily on the vast trade and financial system that some American politicians aim to shrink. If deglobalization goes too far, no country will be spared.
COVID-19: Managing supply chain risk
Could COVID-19 be the event that finally forces many companies, and entire industries, to rethink and transform their global supply chain model?
Three pillars to the economic response
Academics at Chicago Booth looks at three important pillars of the economic policy response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19
The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run.
A decade needs a purpose
The decade ahead promises to be one in which purpose gets to be much more widely entrenched and influential. And asset owners have a role to play in the path to purposeful capitalism.
Inequality risk equal to climate change
Rebecca Henderson, the John and Natty McArthur University Professor at Harvard University who co-teaches Reimagining Capitalism at HBS, says inequality is equal to climate risk in its potential impact. She told delegates at the Fiduciary Investors Symposium at Harvard University when a system no longer generates freedom and prosperity it must be changed. Change is possible because we have the resources and technology to do it. A first move is decent jobs for people at the “bottom”.
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