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Asset Allocation

Scenario analysis tool predicts U-shape

A U-shaped recovery is the most likely economic outcome in the US for the next two years, but stagflation has a higher than anticipated chance of occurring according to a new paper about scenario analysis co-authored by State Street and GIC researchers. The study revolutionises scenario analysis by reorienting it towards a path.
Amanda WhiteNovember 6, 2020
Research

Finance model says Biden will win

Joe Biden will win the US election according to a technique used in finance to predict factor returns and the correlation of stock and bond returns. The technique, outlined in an MIT working paper, correctly predicted the past five elections, including 2016.
Amanda WhiteOctober 30, 2020
Risk

Recession likely in six months: index

There is a 70 per cent chance a recession will occur in the next six months according to a new index measuring the state of the economy that uses a statistical method first applied to analysing human skulls.
Amanda WhiteFebruary 28, 2020
Uncategorised posts

Traditional risk measures flawed

The traditional method of using aggregated monthly data to measure long run risk is flawed and inaccurate, according to important new research by State Street. Co-authors David Turkington, Will Kinlaw and Mark Kritzman have found that there is a huge divergence in risk and return over long periods, which is not visible when using measures […]
Amanda WhiteDecember 10, 2014
Uncategorised posts

Adding value through risk allocations

2013 was a great year to add value by using risk to assign asset allocation, according to chief investment officer of Windham Capital, Lucas Turton, whose fund added 300 basis points above benchmark last year by dynamically allocating according to risk.   Windham Capital Management’s style is to focus on measuring and understanding risk to […]
Amanda WhiteFebruary 19, 2014
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