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articleAsset allocation

Scenario analysis tool predicts U-shape

A U-shaped recovery is the most likely economic outcome in the US for the next two years, but stagflation has a higher than anticipated chance of occurring according to a new paper about scenario analysis co-authored by State Street and GIC researchers. The study revolutionises scenario analysis by reorienting it towards a path.
Research

Finance model says Biden will win

Joe Biden will win the US election according to a technique used in finance to predict factor returns and the correlation of stock and bond returns. The technique, outlined in an MIT working paper, correctly predicted the past five elections, including 2016.
Risk

Recession likely in six months: index

There is a 70 per cent chance a recession will occur in the next six months according to a new index measuring the state of the economy that uses a statistical method first applied to analysing human skulls.
Analysis

Traditional risk measures flawed

The traditional method of using aggregated monthly data to measure long run risk is flawed and inaccurate, according to important new research by State Street. Co-authors David Turkington, Will Kinlaw and Mark Kritzman have found that there is a huge divergence in risk and return over long periods, which is not visible when using measures […]
In Conversation

Adding value through risk allocations

2013 was a great year to add value by using risk to assign asset allocation, according to chief investment officer of Windham Capital, Lucas Turton, whose fund added 300 basis points above benchmark last year by dynamically allocating according to risk.   Windham Capital Management’s style is to focus on measuring and understanding risk to […]
Analysis

A new model of liquidity

The risk-adjusted benefit of being able to rebalance a portfolio is worth tens of basis points, according to new research that assigns risk and return measures to liquidity so it can be analysed alongside other portfolio decisions. The award-winning research is now being used by large sovereign wealth funds, to determine the value they should […]
Analysis

Disparity in policy portfolio risk profiles

A policy portfolio is a poor reflection of investor preferences, argued Peter Bernstein. This philosophical question has now been empirically tested by MIT’s Mark Kritzman, who shows the inter-temporal disparity of a policy portfolio’s risk profile. He suggests a simple framework for addressing this deficiency. Kritzman encourages investors to replace rigid policy portfolios with flexible investment policies. […]
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