The Latest
Risk

Recession likely in six months: index

There is a 70 per cent chance a recession will occur in the next six months according to a new index measuring the state of the economy that uses a statistical method first applied to analysing human skulls.
Analysis

Traditional risk measures flawed

The traditional method of using aggregated monthly data to measure long run risk is flawed and inaccurate, according to important new research by State Street. Co-authors David Turkington, Will Kinlaw and Mark Kritzman have found that there is a huge divergence in risk and return over long periods, which is not visible when using measures […]
In Conversation

Adding value through risk allocations

2013 was a great year to add value by using risk to assign asset allocation, according to chief investment officer of Windham Capital, Lucas Turton, whose fund added 300 basis points above benchmark last year by dynamically allocating according to risk.   Windham Capital Management’s style is to focus on measuring and understanding risk to […]
Analysis

A new model of liquidity

The risk-adjusted benefit of being able to rebalance a portfolio is worth tens of basis points, according to new research that assigns risk and return measures to liquidity so it can be analysed alongside other portfolio decisions. The award-winning research is now being used by large sovereign wealth funds, to determine the value they should […]
Analysis

Disparity in policy portfolio risk profiles

A policy portfolio is a poor reflection of investor preferences, argued Peter Bernstein. This philosophical question has now been empirically tested by MIT’s Mark Kritzman, who shows the inter-temporal disparity of a policy portfolio’s risk profile. He suggests a simple framework for addressing this deficiency. Kritzman encourages investors to replace rigid policy portfolios with flexible investment policies. […]
In Conversation

The evolution of risk

Chief investment officer of Windham Capital Management and researcher extraordinaire, Mark Kritzman, is using his proprietary turbulence and systemic risk indicators to calculate the internal systemic risk of total institutional portfolios. He says this analysis can deliver a powerful precursor to portfolio volatility in the future.
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