Macquarie: Deglobalisation the next inflection point in real assets

Global governments are partnering with private investors to boost their domestic infrastructure and become more self-sufficient in a geopolitically fragmented world, according to Ben Way, global head of Macquarie Asset Management, who said that constrained public balance sheets are increasingly reliant on private capital to meet their infrastructure needs.

“I think the next catalyst [in real assets] is… deglobalisation,” Way told the Top1000funds.com Fiduciary Investors Symposium held at Harvard University.

“It’s about geographical structural realignment. It’s about greater self-sufficiency and sovereignty of nations around everything from data to power to food, and it’s also about securing those various supply chains.

“[Deglobalisation] has really emerged over the last two years, and there’s so much more to understand and unlock in terms of what this shift means for the world.”

The importance of greater self-sufficiency became evident in the fallout of the US-Iran conflict, when global oil prices spiked and nations rushed to secure energy sources following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“There’s a huge amount of discussion around how nations can build greater self-sufficiency across their energy supply chains,” he said.

“The opportunity set in this space is much more pronounced today than two years ago, and that’s a direct response to the geopolitical shifts we are seeing globally and the supply chain disruptions those shifts have created, and governments are seeking to reduce their exposure to those vulnerabilities.”

As countries reassert sovereignty over supply chains, energy and data, Way sees a profound shift in how capital will need to be deployed. “The opportunity set for investors who understand these dynamics has never been bigger,” he says.

Combined with the constraints on public balance sheets, the opportunity for private capital, particularly in things like infrastructure, is turbocharged.

“Private capital will go where there’s an opportunity set, where it can get the best risk-adjusted returns, but also where there’s strong regulatory framework”, said Way.

This has contributed to a renewed interest in public-private partnerships in Europe as the EU seeks to close the funding gap of the additional €750 billion to €800 billion per annum necessary to modernise its infrastructure across defence, energy and social services, according to the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

“Europe has significant strengths as an investment destination – there are investable asset classes in the UK and Europe that don’t materially exist yet in the US,” Way said, pointing to the capacity for private investments in airports and railways.

“In fact, outside of the US, European nations consistently feature prominently among the top 20 global destinations for foreign direct investment each year. However, there’s an opportunity to do more to communicate that story effectively to the world,” Way said.

Reflecting on his firm’s approach to value creation, Way emphasised that success lies not just in sourcing opportunities, but in delivering returns to clients. “As asset managers, we’re trusted by our clients to protect and invest their money, but also to return it – we find opportunities, create assets to generate alpha, and then choose the right time to exit,” he said.

When asked about other sectors investors should be considering, Way continues to see digitisation as a powerful thematic, highlighting the compelling intersection of AI, data centres and energy.

“There’s more than just data centre capacity – the real challenge, and opportunity, is how you power it responsibly without disrupting the communities in which those data centres operate. That’s the art of being a sophisticated investor in both data centres and energy supply.”

The convergence of AI-driven demand, the energy transition and the need for resilient infrastructure is creating a rare alignment of structural tailwinds – and with significant capital seeking reliable, risk-adjusted returns, Way believes the conditions are exceptional.

“When you’ve got significant opportunities and capital needing a place to go where it can get the right risk-adjusted returns, that normally points toward an inflection point and at the moment, we’ve got that in many markets around the world.”