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FIS Digital – December 2020

Scenario analysis tool predicts U-shape

A U-shaped recovery is the most likely economic outcome in the US for the next two years, but stagflation has a higher than anticipated chance of occurring according to a new paper about scenario analysis co-authored by State Street and GIC researchers. The study revolutionises scenario analysis by reorienting it towards a path.

Finance model says Biden will win

Joe Biden will win the US election according to a technique used in finance to predict factor returns and the correlation of stock and bond returns. The technique, outlined in an MIT working paper, correctly predicted the past five elections, including 2016.

Recession likely in six months: index

There is a 70 per cent chance a recession will occur in the next six months according to a new index measuring the state of the economy that uses a statistical method first applied to analysing human skulls.