In this research report Watson Wyatt asserts the long-term outlook for emerging economies will impact positively on emerging market investments, but it warns that choice of asset class and implementation route are not obvious. The report suggests exposure to the macroeconomic dynamics of emerging markets will be most readily obtained in emerging market equities, debt and currencies, and discusses how emerging market economies will continue to grow strongly, due to a mix of rising productivity, economic and financial reforms, and favourable demographics. However, it states that institutional investors face significant complexity and potentially high fees when trying to build a portfolio that captures this long-term trend and should also recognise the governance implication of following such a strategy.
Research
GIC, Temasek eye trillions of growth in climate adaptation market
Singapore’s two largest asset owners, GIC and Temasek, see attractive opportunities in climate adaptation solutions – a relatively underfunded area compared to decarbonisation. The former has already made selective adaptation investments and said the opportunity set across public and private debt and equity could increase to $9 trillion by 2050.
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Persistently high equity risk premium unprecedented
This paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York looks at the equity risk premium information from 20 models and estimates the ERP for various time periods. Extraordinarily it finds that the (preferred) estimator places the one-year equity premium in July 2013 at 14.5 percent, the highest level in 50 years and well above the
Investor pitfalls in setting up a satellite office
As part of the broader trend to become professional organisations, pension funds and soverieng wealth funds are expanding geographically with the establishment of satellite offices. This expansion raises concerns of governance, culture, politics and talent. This paper looks at the case studies from 12 funds that have launched or considering launching satellite offices and offers
The Determinants of Pension Funds’ Allocation to Private Equity
This paper by the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) investigates the main determinants of pension funds investment in private equity funds, and particularly in venture capital and leverage buyouts in the US and Canada over the 1996-2011 period. The results show some important differences between pension funds allocating to private equity and more traditional assets. The first ones are
Recasting private equity after the financial crisis
This article published by the European Corporate Governance and written by Tilburg University academics examines the post-financial crisis trends in the private equity industry, showing investors are demanding the inclusion of more investor-favorable compensation terms in limited partnership agreements. The findings suggest these new terms not only provide the investors with more favorable management fee and profit
Systemic tail risk
A research paper by executives at the Dutch Central Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, examines tail risk, and shows that historical tail betas are able to capture the sensitivity to future systematic tail risk. The paper can be downloaded here Systemic tail riskmrec4inarticleinline Sponsored Content scnative1 scnative2 scnative3
Is Bitcoin a real currency?
Analysis of Bitcoin’s historical trading behaviour shows it has exchange rate volatility an order of magnitude higher than the volatilities of widely used currencies, undermining its usefulness as a unit of account or a store of value. Bitcoin’s daily exchange rates exhibit virtually zero correlation with bona fide currencies, making it useless for risk management
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