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How Norway’s SWF deals with FX tail risk

From a risk management perspective, tail risks and return distribution asymmetries of investments are important to analyse. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) in this note describes a modelling approach that addresses some of the weaknesses of standard risk models. It uses the model internally as a complement to standard models to evaluate tail risk in foreign-exchange

Macro sensitive portfolio strategies

This research paper by MSCI defines macro-economic risk as the change in asset value due to persistent shocks to real economic growth. This definition underscores the role of long horizons in macroeconomic risk and the principal issue facing investors: how should asset allocation respond to large macroeconomic shocks, given that their consequences are likely to

What is intergenerational justice?

In the paper Pension Funds, Sovereign-wealth Funds and Intergenerational Justice from the Norwegian School of Economics, those Scandinavians have come up with something better than the national alcohol monopoly: a natty new finance term. “Intergenerational justice” (try saying it thrice after a glass of aquavit) seems to refer to a combination of two things: a

Handy Sandy:
analysing the hurricane

When Hurricane Sandy descended on the east coast of the United States and headed inland, it forced the closure of all the nation’s financial markets. Christopher Finger and Oleg Ruben at MSCI thought this was important because, although there are plenty of precedents for natural disasters in terms of economic impact, the storm was singular

The procyclicality premium

Moving with business cycles, procyclical stocks have been found to yield higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. William Goetzmann and Akiko and Masahiro Watanabe use 50 years of real GDP growth expectations from economists’ surveys to determine forecasted economic states in order to avoid the effects of econometric forecasting model error. The scholars created a