The global state of democracy

Democracy expert, Tom Carothers, takes us on a journey highlighting the disruption to democracy around the world over the past decade. Using the United States as a case study he looks at the cultural and economic drivers of democracy, and importantly its prospects for survival.[vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Thomas%20Carothers%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Harvey%20V.%20Fineberg%20Chair%20for%20democracy%20studies%2C%20Carnegie%20Endowment%20for%20International%20Peace%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Thomas%20Carothers%20is%20senior%20vice%20president%20for%20studies%20at%20the%20Carnegie%20Endowment%20for%20International%20Peace.%20In%20that%20capacity%20he%20oversees%20all%20of%20the%20research%20programs%20at%20Carnegie.%20%20He%20also%20directs%20the%20democracy%2C%20conflict%2C%20and%20governance%20program%20and%20carries%20out%20research%20and%20writing%20on%20democracy-related%20issues.%5Cn%5CnCarothers%20is%20a%20leading%20authority%20on%20international%20support%20for%20democracy%2C%20human%20rights%2C%20governance%2C%20the%20rule%20of%20law%2C%20and%20civil%20society.%20He%20has%20worked%20on%20democracy%20assistance%20projects%20for%20many%20organisations%20and%20carried%20out%20extensive%20field%20research%20on%20aid%20efforts%20around%20the%20world.%5Cn%5CnHe%20is%20the%20author%20or%20editor%20of%2010%20critically%20acclaimed%20books%20and%20many%20articles%20in%20prominent%20journals%20and%20newspapers%2C%20including%20most%20recently%2C%20Democracies%20Divided%3A%20The%20Global%20Challenge%20of%20Political%20Polarization%20(Brookings%20Press%2C%202019%2C%20co-edited%20with%20Andrew%20O%E2%80%99Donohue).%20He%20has%20been%20a%20visiting%20faculty%20member%20at%20the%20Central%20European%20University%20in%20Budapest%2C%20Nuffield%20College%2C%20Oxford%20University%2C%20and%20Johns%20Hopkins%20SAIS.%5Cn%5CnPrior%20to%20joining%20the%20endowment%2C%20Carothers%20practiced%20international%20and%20financial%20law%20at%20Arnold%20%26%20Porter%20and%20served%20as%20an%20attorney%20adviser%20in%20the%20office%20of%20the%20legal%20adviser%20of%20the%20US%20Department%20of%20State.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2235228%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_quotes layout=”accordion” quotes=”%5B%7B%22name%22%3A%22Stephen%20Kotkin%22%2C%22job_role%22%3A%22Professor%20in%20history%20and%20international%20affairs%2C%20Princeton%20University%22%2C%22content%22%3A%22Professor%20Kotkin%20received%20his%20PhD%20from%20the%20University%20of%20California%2C%20Berkeley%20in%201988%2C%20and%20has%20been%20a%20professor%20at%20Princeton%20since%201989.%20He%20is%20also%20a%20senior%20fellow%20at%20the%20Hoover%20Institution%20at%20Stanford%20University.%5CnAt%20Princeton%20Professor%20Kotkin%20teaches%20courses%20in%20geopolitics%2C%20modern%20authoritarianism%2C%20global%20history%2C%20and%20Soviet%20Eurasia%2C%20and%20has%20won%20all%20of%20the%20university%E2%80%99s%20teaching%20awards.%20He%20has%20served%20as%20the%20vice%20dean%20of%20Princeton%E2%80%99s%20Woodrow%20Wilson%20School%20of%20Public%20and%20International%20Affairs%2C%20and%20chaired%20the%20editorial%20committee%20of%20Princeton%20University%20Press.%20Outside%20Princeton%2C%20he%20writes%20essays%20and%20reviews%20for%20Foreign%20Affairs%2C%20the%20Wall%20Street%20Journal%2C%20and%20the%20Times%20Literary%20Supplement%2C%20among%20other%20publications%2C%20and%20was%20the%20regular%20book%20reviewer%20for%20the%20New%20York%20Times%20Sunday%20Business%20section%20for%20many%20years.%20%20He%20serves%20as%20an%20invited%20consultant%20to%20defence%20ministries%20and%20intelligence%20agencies%20in%20multiple%20countries.%20%20His%20latest%20book%20is%20Stalin%3A%20Waiting%20for%20Hitler%2C%201929-1941%20(Penguin%2C%202017).%20%20His%20previous%20book%20was%20a%20finalist%20for%20the%20Pulitzer%20Prize.%22%2C%22image%22%3A%2235224%22%2C%22linkedin%22%3A%22%22%7D%5D” title=”Moderator” el_class=””][vc_empty_space height=”10px”]

Key takeaways

Thomas Carothers

• There is a lot of bad news about democracy but in our increasing gloom over the state of democracy we are making the mistake of overfeeling and underthinking
• Three big things have been happening with democracy in the last 15 years that contribute towards something approaching a global crisis of democracy:

1) Traditional democracies are experiencing a surprising amount of democratic unrest 2) Key big non-Western democracies that were expected to drive democracy have faltered 3) China and Russia have continued on a path of their own

• In the last ten years there have been more mass protests against governments than any ten years in history, driven by 1) economic marginalisation 2) corruption and 3) politicians stretching their reach or tenure too far.
• Citizens are striving for more and governments are striving (but often failing) to deliver more.
• There is no intangible crisis of democracy, rather democracy is driven by clear tangible measures – 1) is there a fair system of electing leaders? 2) are leaders representative of the people? 3) are leaders accountable with constraints on their power? and 4) do leaders show basic competence?
• In the US the people vs the elite is a reality. There is also huge left vs right divide. But these extreme polarisations prevent the required steps to alleviate systemic issues of imbalance.
• Deep democratic problems need to be managed, not solved. We should not take a big bang approach, we should tackle five to ten small- to medium-sized issues one at a time.
• The US needs to shift its mindset to present its issues and work together with other countries to collaborate on a solution, rather than presenting an area of strength to push to other regions. This more neutral, more humble approach targeting modest reform in a quiet way will help the US regain global credibility.

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Unanswered questions and answers

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