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Investors need to prioritise resilience, risk management, digitisation trends and talent to future proof their portfolios says OPTrust CIO James Davis.

Resilience and risk management, exposure to digitisation and climate opportunities and a keen eye on talent management will be key components for investment success in portfolios of the future, said James Davis, chief investment officer of Canada’s C$23 billion OPTrust speaking in the opening session of FIS Digital.

In an era of uncertainty where investors need to prepare for “whatever the future throws” Davis told delegates (some 170 asset owners across 26 countries) that risk management is now as much a source of value creation as a control function.

Investment decisions at OPTrust are framed by beneficiaries’ need for certainty. The mature plan is fully funded and can’t take as much risk as younger pension funds, he said.

“Our members just want to know they can count on their pension.”

Still, this must be balanced against the fact three quarters of plan benefits are funded by investment returns from today’s uncertain world.

It leaves OPTrust having to earn the returns it needs (to keep the plan fully funded) incurring the lowest possible risk. Davis is focused on building a portfolio that is as resilient as possible, only allocating risk – “a scarce resource” – with purpose. The fund also hedges all unrewarded risk. It has a liability hedge portfolio that holds long maturity bonds, and the fund uses leverage to reduce its funded risk.

Returns

The return seeking portfolio is primarily focused on alternative assets comprising real estate, infrastructure and private equity.

Davis doesn’t see much value creation potential in public markets. Although the fund does have some actively managed portfolios, his preference is to allocate risk to public markets only to get the desired risk exposure for the overall portfolio and benefit from a dynamic public markets allocation that can “mitigate drawdowns in the wider return seeking portfolio.”

Beyond diversification

For true resilience, investors need to think beyond diversification and focus instead on resilience no matter what the economic environment.

“We can’t always count on diversification; correlations change,” he warned.

The macro environment is simply too unknown to make diversification a fail-safe. For example, it was impossible to predict COVID or the policy response. The Fed could make a policy mistake; inflation is increasing but deflation is as much of a possibility, and investors shouldn’t rule out stagflation either.

Resilience also comes via cost effective risk mitigation strategies like machine learning, providing insight to help reduce equity drawdowns.

“It allows us to dial up and dial down the equity allocation in the portfolio more effectively than we can do using our own predictions,” he said.

Digitisation and climate

Although Davis noted the challenges inherent in identifying digitisation winners and losers, the pension plan is drawing on external expertise to better understand crypto and blockchain innovations – an example of how OPTrust, which manages assets in-house where it has the expertise, also works with partners when needed.

Davis said that digital assets are poised to gain traction, changing “the way markets look at how we access investment opportunities” as the virtual economy evolves.

Blockchain and tokenisation are significant, and investors need to understand them to know which opportunities to tap and which parts of the economy to avoid because of approaching disruption.

Internally it is also using AI to improve investment outcomes.

A portfolio of the future needs a firm grip on the implications of climate change. A risk that has accelerated compared to “a decade ago” when Davis noted investors deemed the implications of climate change a “risk down the road”. He said climate change is happening quickly and markets are pricing it in.

Convinced of the opportunity ahead, OPTrust has set up a new team tasked with helping colleagues across the pension fund integrate climate into their decision-making processes, and seeking out investment opportunities in its own right.

“We have given them investment capital,” said Davis, saying the focus for opportunities lies at the intersection between innovation and sustainability. “We believe capital will flow to where solutions are being created to solve challenges: we want to identify where the opportunities are and we want to participate. It is not just about risk.”

OPTrust is currently shaping a new climate strategy it hopes to launch mid next year that will outline the fund’s view on fiduciary responsibility in the context of climate change.

Portfolios of the future also need to pay particular attention to talent and governance. Davis said investors need to think more about how to bring new people into their organisations.

“People are our greatest asset,” he said, detailing OPTrust’s rotational internship programme where young, cognitively diverse talent spend time across the plan.

“Young people bring fresh ideas and innovation.”

Another, central tenet to future proofing portfolios for the years ahead is governance.

“In a changing world, you need to bring your board along,” he concluded.

More so given today’s climate where risk management is not just about control but also about value creation.

“If you don’t know what harbour you are seeking, no lighthouse will guide you.”

The world in which pension organizations operate is undoubtedly becoming more complex. Not only have organizations needed to adapt to low interest rates and changes in capital markets since the financial crisis, but also the need to navigate within the framework of climate change and sustainability. That is before we even consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pension organizations must continuously adapt to these changing conditions to be successful over long time horizons. Stakeholders are right to be concerned about an organization’s ability to innovate and succeed long-term. These concerns can be addressed through transparent communication.

Reviewing the disclosures of 75 global pension organizations for the Global Pension Transparency Benchmark (GPTB) found that only 36 per cent of organizations made public disclosures regarding their organizational strategy that went beyond disclosures of economic and market conditions and the impact on the performance of their investments. Clearly there is room for improvement in communicating key corporate activities to stakeholders. This article explores some of the ways that funds may go about doing so.

About the Global Pension Transparency Benchmark

The Global Pension Transparency Benchmark (GPTB), a collaboration between Top1000funds.com and CEM Benchmarking, was launched in 2021. The GPTB is a world first for pension fund disclosure, bringing a focus to transparency in a bid to improve pension outcomes for members. The public disclosures of key value generating elements for the five largest pension organisations across 15 countries were reviewed in the inaugural annual assessment.

The GPTB framework examines four high-impact value-driving factors: governance and organisation, performance, costs, and responsible investing, which are scored by assessing almost 200 specific components.

The reviews cover fund websites, annual reports, financial statements, and various other published documents. Disclosures are scored objectively, mainly using yes/no answers related to what is disclosed/not disclosed.

Disclosures related to performance results are scored but the relative outcomes themselves are not scored. Clearly, outcomes are important. However, it is not useful to compare them across funds globally because of differences in plan types, organisational mandates, and regulatory frameworks.

In developing the GPTB framework, we recognised that disclosure quality cannot be completely captured by simple objective questions. Communication quality – clarity, cohesiveness, brevity, plain language, use of infographics – is difficult to measure objectively, but it is vital to ensure that key information is read and understood by stakeholders. Therefore, we decided to highlight communication quality through our selection of best practice examples.

Communication quality ranged widely across funds. Some reviews were frankly painful to do because of poor communication quality, even when disclosures and transparency scores were reasonable. In contrast, the communication quality of some of the material we reviewed was outstanding. We found that the small group of funds that prepared Integrated Annual Reports were among the very best.

Disclosing organizational strategy: Moving beyond investment performance

Organizations are generally quite forthcoming about their fund performance and how it was impacted by external economic factors. The review of funds for the GPTB revealed that:

95 per cent of organizations reviewed provided commentary on economic and market conditions; and
close to two thirds of organizations provided forward looking statements on how they saw economic and market conditions impacting their fund in the future.

Although undoubtedly important, how a pension organization navigates economic and market conditions is only one piece of the puzzle.

Pension organizations, especially large globally focused pension organization, are better viewed as corporate entities who must effectively manage more than just their stock of financial capital to be successful over long time horizons. The Integrated Reporting, or <IR> framework provides a guide as to what pension organizations should be disclosing to stakeholders and defines the following capitals:

Financial capital – The pool of funds that is available to the organization for use in the provision of pensions and available to generate returns to meet future obligations. Pension organizations currently focus most or all of the disclosures on this capital.

Manufactured capital –In the context of pension organizations, this capital represents the buildings and more importantly the IT infrastructure and systems used to create value. Organizations must ensure that its IT systems are fit for purpose of managing risks and that such systems innovate as new risks emerge or gain in importance. This capital also encompasses the operation of satellite offices to enhance value creation in foreign assets.

Intellectual capital – Not only must organizations ensure adequate physical infrastructure, but they must also ensure that proprietary economic, risk and reporting models remain relevant and reflect both current realities and anticipated changes.

Human Capital – Pension organizations must ensure that they possess the requisite human capital to enact their investment strategy. This is especially pertinent when organizations choose to insource investment management, risk and other functions.

Social and relationship capital – This category of capital would include not just disclosure and communications to stakeholders but also how the organization navigates the political realities in both their home jurisdiction as well as globally. By virtue of their size and importance in the provision of pensions on a national level, pension organizations will often have to work with both governments and NGOs to ensure that they are able to create value both for their direct stakeholders and society as a whole.

Natural capital – Similar to social and relationship capital there are two lenses with which to view this capital. First from the lens of the organization’s own natural footprint. Although often viewed as relatively minor, communication in this regard can help foster better social and relationship capital. More important is how funds deal with natural capital through their stewardship and active ownership endeavours, ensuring that financial capital continues to generate value over the long-term.

How leading organizations are communicating corporate strategy

The example below from Canada’s PSP Investment Board shows that effective disclosures on corporate strategy don’t have to be long and complex. In a single page they effectively distill the major items of their organizational strategy, covering topics such as:

The management of their human capital through discussion of development and retention of staff; and
The growth of their stock of intellectual and manufactured capital by increasing their global footprint and investment in new systems to increase operational efficiency.

Michael Reid is vice president, relationship management at CEM Benchmarking.

In a complex investment environment, investors should get back to basics and focus on corporate cash flows, scarcity value and the impact of inflationary pressure on profits. Simplicity will serve investors well in the coming years.

When things get complicated it often helps to try and simplify them. Looking out on today’s complex investment landscape investors should focus on the key fundamentals that drive corporate cash flows, profitability and ultimately asset prices over the long term. It requires sight of a company’s revenues versus costs, ascertaining if it is producing something other corporates can’t and identifying the key profitability drivers in its wider industry.

“At the end of the day, it really comes down to the fact that asset prices are a function of future profit” says Robert Almeida, global investment strategist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management in an interview with Top1000funds.com from the firm’s Boston headquarters.

“The simpler we can make it, the better off we will be.”

Keeping it simple means playing down the importance of trends and avoiding grand predictions. Political insight, a view on GDP or where the next spike in the virus will hit isn’t going to help either.

And he warns that the past won’t throw any light on the future in a view shared by other strategists like Alliance Bernstein’s head of institutional solutions, Inigo Fraser Jenkins, who argues investors are entering new terrain. After decades of low inflation, the characteristics that have underpinned the investment dynamic of the last 30 years are set to change.

“We think that the pandemic has changed the investment environment and the policy framework within which investment decisions are made,” says Fraser Jenkins. “Investors are likely to have to get used to a higher level of inflation, and governments may need a higher level of inflation to deal with debt levels. The pendulum will swing away from favouring owners of capital to labour.”

In truth, says Almeida, nobody knows what is going to happen and unlike science, finance is not rooted in immutable rules like gravity. Ignore the hubris and concentrate on making as few mistakes as possible.

Deciding what is and isn’t material has become more complex. Central banks have intentionally crowded out the purpose of financial markets via extensive asset purchases, leading to significant asset price inflation. Now the pandemic and subsequent recovery make it even more difficult to gage corporate profitability. Strong GDP levels coming out of COVID resulted in double digit corporate revenues and surging stock prices, fuelled by companies ripping out costs.

“Government stimulus, followed by the vaccine, has led to an explosion in economic growth boosting corporate revenues,” he says.

Now the picture changed again.

“GDP growth is fading as the stimulus wears off, while old costs are coming back into companies’ bottom line,” he says, just back from his first business trip since the pandemic – an industry conference in Salt Lake City. Elsewhere, new corporate costs are appearing like the spike in energy prices and secular costs like integrating sustainability.

“If you mix all these things together, plus expectations around cash flows and profits, my worry is things will decelerate faster than what markets expect,” says Almeida.

Add in the fact supply chain disruption is proving less transitory, impacting companies in two ways. On one hand it is triggering a negative supply shock, reducing the number of goods companies can put on their shelves and hitting revenues. On the other, bottlenecks are increasing costs like labour and raw material inputs, especially electricity.

“Companies are burning the candle at both ends. Profits are a function of revenues versus costs and in my view, revenue growth is vulnerable while costs are likely to rise,” says Almeida.

Solutions in scarcity

Making sense of these myriad cross currents requires investors focus on identifying the factors that will drive corporate profitability going forward. They should pick companies that are offering products and services which people are prepared to pay more for and stocks that can offer different profit streams.

“Scarcity has value,” says Almeida, who believes a scarcity value or premium will result in fierce competition for high performing stocks and bonds down the line, surprising investors.

As well as creating winners, the dispersion in risk markets will create losers. Avoid companies that don’t have something unique or have derived income from, say, not paying employees properly and now can’t raise prices. These companies will underperform in the next cycle, he predicts.

A scarcity value or premium will result in fierce competition for high performing stocks and bonds

It’s a sentiment echoed by Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller’s global family office, part of Rockefeller Capital Management which includes both the family office, private wealth management plus Rockefeller Asset Management and Rockefeller Strategic Advisory, responsible for a combined $85 billion of assets.

Chang counsels a similarly cautious approach focused on finding the best quality and most consistent names with the strongest balance sheets as the market’s macro backdrop becomes less supportive.

“Our stimulus-driven economy is transitioning to mid-cycle,” he says. “While November and December are historically stronger periods of the year for equities, waning fiscal and monetary stimuli coupled with still elevated inflation portend higher volatility after the turning of the calendar to 2022. Such an environment warrants some conservatism, and we believe investors should focus on higher quality stocks with a history of earnings consistency.”

Both Chang and Fraser Jenkins think investors should position for higher inflation. While Chang has suggested investors play this with exposure to inflation beneficiaries like financial services and commodities, Fraser Jenkins suggests higher equity exposure, a strategic exposure to the value factor and a reduction in the duration of portfolios. “We also think that investors need to consider using factors alongside traditional asset classes in asset allocation,” he suggests.

Sustainability

Sustainability, as well as scarcity, will be the other performance differentiator in the years ahead. Investors will increasingly reduce allocations to companies in their portfolios that don’t integrate sustainability. And many companies haven’t factored in the cost of the transition, says Almeida.

“Given the level of corporate indebtedness today, ESG strikes me as an underappreciated material risk, particularly by corporate bond investors.”

When it comes to making investment decisions, Almeida warns technology holds challenges and opportunities. Sure, investors have more information than ever before. But it requires carefully sifting through and does not equate to knowledge.

“To be clear, reaction time to a data point is not a differentiator. The differentiator is the ability to disregard what isn’t material and incorporate what is,” he says. “As you take in more data you must decipher what information does, and doesn’t, change the investment thesis.”

Don’t build portfolios based on past trends or try and predict what might happen in the future; views on central bank tapering and interest rate policy are important but shouldn’t be central. Rather, bond and equity investors should focus on corporate cash flows, scarcity premiums and the impact of inflationary pressure on profits.

“Profits are a function of revenues versus costs and in my view, revenue growth is vulnerable while costs are likely to rise,” he concludes.

Technologies that have decimated and transformed the retail and manufacturing sectors are finally ‘knocking at the doors’ of the services sector, and institutional investors need to build a higher level of technology education among in-house sector specialists to stay ahead of the curve, argues Taimur Hyat, chief operating officer at PGIM, the investment management business of Prudential based in New Jersey.

But Hyat said more incumbents in financial services would survive and thrive than was the case when retail and manufacturing were disrupted, as incumbents within this sector have stickier client bases, more complex regulatory structures, and at least winning incumbents are making the investments needed in cutting-edge technology, do technology-driven M&A, and are willing to cannibalise their own business models.

It is imperative for investors in financial services to observe which incumbents are making the transition and positioning themselves for the future, he said.

“The leading incumbent service firms have seen this movie before in other sectors,” Hyat said.

“They are embracing technologies and there are ways to empirically test whether they’re doing so. They’re willing to cannibalise their legacy models and it’s important to keep an eye on them and understand that bifurcation of incumbents into those evolving with the times and the dinosaurs who will be left behind.”

In an interview as part of the Market Narratives podcast Hyat raised the impact of key technological advances on healthcare, finance and logistics, drawing from the insights from PGIM’s recent paper, ‘Reshaping Services: The investment implications of technological disruption’.

Hyat gave the example of robo-advisers which were seen as a threat to wealth management businesses.

Large wealth managers have built digital user interfaces that drive down costs or have “simply acquired these robo-advisors and become more powerful themselves,” he said.

Also acting in favour of incumbents is the fact that customers are a lot more “sticky” in the financial services industry than in other industries. Customers are much less willing to switch health care providers or financial advisors than they are to try a new app for booking restaurants or ordering groceries.

Regulatory barriers and the risk of regulatory backlash also create tech inertia in these sectors, making it harder for new entrants to arrive and completely revolutionise the way things are done.

Institutional investors need to separate “breathless media hype” from the “investible reality today,” Hyat said, singling out public blockchain, automated vehicles and drones as technologies that may fall short of investor expectations.

The internal combustion engine will see a “long sunset”, he said, owing to regulatory uncertainty around AV, the enormous job of building new EV infrastructure, and concerns from some governments over potential job losses from automating truck driving.

“We think AVs will take longer than people expect beyond certain closed loops and certain… trucking circuits and a couple of emerging markets that are kind of making the bet there,” Hyat said.

But he does believe neo banks and fintech payment platforms are two areas where there is a strong opportunity for venture capital.

“We do think neo banks are actually not trying to steal the customers of the existing incumbents, which as I just said, is expensive and quite hard,” Hyat said. “But they’re trying to go after unbanked populations that were too expensive or didn’t have enough profit margins for old-fashioned bricks-and-mortar technology to serve them.”

On the topic of payment platforms, “the MasterCards and Visas of the world are ripe for disruption,” Hyat said, particularly in emerging markets without deeply entrenched legacy payment systems.

For the podcasts in this series see PGIM’s Harsh Parikh on getting the sensitivities right in real assets.

Investing in consumer finance portfolios – an untapped opportunity

The emergence of a specialty finance sector in Europe in recent years has opened up an opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a large, mature and resilient asset class – consumer finance – offering myriad of potential benefits, including diversification and higher risk-adjusted returns. Moreover, the opportunity to invest in performing residential mortgage and consumer loan portfolios appears compelling due to a unique confluence of factors, and in view of the supportive macroeconomic, regulatory and policy backdrop. This paper outlines the case for investing in consumer finance portfolios and how investors can gain access to the opportunity via both a specialty finance approach that utilises cost-effective financing to drive higher risk-adjusted returns, as well as an income-driven approach focused on cashflow generation.

Read the paper

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If the world is to achieve net zero, investors’ current approaches to allocating capital must change. We examine the flaws in asset managers’ and owners’ interpretation, which has led them to set portfolio-level carbon targets that will stymie global net zero ambitions.

Monitoring EM countries’ alignment with global climate goals: a new index to track EM climate performance.

The fast view

If the world is to achieve net zero at a speed compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals, investors’ current approaches to allocating capital must change.
The approaches’ flaw lies in asset managers’ and owners’ interpretations of net zero, which has led them to set portfolio-level carbon targets that may actually stymie the world’s net-zero ambition.
The acute risk in these capital-allocation models is that emerging markets may be starved of the finance they need to transition to net zero. No net zero in some parts of the world means no net zero everywhere.
The first step is for investors to get better at assessing whether an investment or portfolio is aligned with a net-zero pathway that works for all the world. We believe core portfolios should move away from a myopic focus on carbon intensity and towards a focus on a transition. None of the current metrics offers a comprehensive tool.
The Net Zero Sovereign Index, introduced in this paper, provides, we believe, sovereign- debt investors with the best, independently verified assessment of Paris-alignment.
The next step is to create financial instruments that help capital allocators align with real-world decarbonisation. It is crucial that the developed world and global investor community increase funding to finance the transition in emerging markets. Asset owners must commit capital to a transition, and work with asset managers and policy makers to develop common usable standards for transition finance.
We hope that this paper and the Net Zero Sovereign Index encourage a deeper discussion about what capital allocators can do to help achieve a real and sustainable path to total net zero. Time is short.

Access No one left behind: Building an inclusive transition for emerging markets

Part 1: Why investors need better tools to assess net-zero alignment

Part 2: How to measure better — the Net Zero Sovereign Bond Index

Part 3: Financing an inclusive transition

Download the full PDF:

Download the PDF

Important Information

This communication is provided for general information only should not be construed as advice.

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Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.