COVID-19 Research Hub

Europe’s response to COVID-19

European real GDP is now projected to contract by 7 per cent in 2020, its biggest decline since World War II, followed by a rebound of 4.7 per cent in 2021. But the recovery’s strength will depend crucially on the course of the pandemic, people’s behavior, and the degree of continued economic policy support. 
COVID-19 Research Hub

Alternative data as a market predictor

It is critical to analyse how much COVID-19 could impact the US economy and stock markets but most of the traditional factors or economic indicators will lag the market movement. Therefore, alternative datasets other than the financial data show their explanation power to provide insights into the pandemic. This article, by academics at Tsinghua University, University of Illinois and Carnegie Mellon University, looks at the pattern of the market fluctuation from the perspective of alternative data.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Building better retirement systems

The global COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for better risk management tools to handle longevity and ageing. This paper by Wharton's Olivia Mitchell, offers an assessment of the status quo prior the coronavirus; evaluates how retirement systems are faring in the wake of the shock; examines insurance and financial market products that may render retirement systems more resilient for the world’s ageing population; and looks at the potential role for policymakers.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Building back better

For the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis to be durable and resilient, a return to ‘business as usual’ and environmentally destructive investment patterns and activities must be avoided. To avoid this, economic recovery packages should be designed to “build back better”.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Sustainable and inclusive: recovery

As policymakers consider policy interventions to support the recovery, investors should be engaging policymakers by providing technical expertise and allocating capital to sustainable investments. A new report by PRI presents a series of recommendations for investor policy engagement and indicative proposals for action.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Navigating a pandemic-driven crisis

A new report by Mercer, COVID-19 – Investment Governance and Strategy to Navigate a Pandemic-Driven Market Crisis, examines how large asset owners are finding ways to pursue attractive risk-adjusted investment returns while also taking investment actions to help mitigate and address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through investment governance.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Global policy tracker

The HBS Global Policy Tracker is an initiative to collect and standardise economic policies implemented around the world as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and lockdowns. The data is updated in real-time with the efforts of several dozen students and staff at Harvard Business School and other Harvard Schools.
COVID-19 Research Hub

Lessons from COVID-19 for private debt

The global economic shutdown triggered by COVID-19 has put the North American private debt industry to its first major test. What lessons can be learned from the global financial crisis that are relevant today? What lessons are emerging as a result of COVID-19? And how might the industry evolve?
COVID-19 Research Hub

The great lockdown

The global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 per cent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalises, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial.
COVID-19 Research Hub

How RI should be responding to COVID-19

The PRI is working with signatories to further develop thinking on what the COVID-19 crisis means for investors. It is establishing two signatory participation groups to coordinate and develop investor responses, focusing on short term responses, and a future economic recovery phase.
COVID-19 Research Hub

COVID-induced economic uncertainty

This paper identifies three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures and illustrate how they can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. It implies a year-on-year contraction in US real GDP of nearly 11 per cent as of 2020 Q4