European real GDP is now projected to contract by 7 per cent in 2020, its biggest decline since World War II, followed by a rebound of 4.7 per cent in 2021. But the recovery’s strength will depend crucially on the course of the pandemic, people’s behavior, and the degree of continued economic policy support.
IMFOctober 22, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic sparked a surge of volatility across global financial markets. In this paper, MSCI looks at five key lessons for investors from the crisis, including that managing factors was more critical than picking stocks.
MSCIAugust 24, 2020
New research looking at the impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios – from opening of economies to no vaccine – suggests the economic consequences of COVID-19 under all scenarios is substantial and the ongoing economic adjustment is far from over.
Warwick McKibbin and Roshen FernandoAugust 19, 2020
It is critical to analyse how much COVID-19 could impact the US economy and stock markets but most of the traditional factors or economic indicators will lag the market movement. Therefore, alternative datasets other than the financial data show their explanation power to provide insights into the pandemic. This article, by academics at Tsinghua University, University of Illinois and Carnegie Mellon University, looks at the pattern of the market fluctuation from the perspective of alternative data.
COVID-19 has delivered an enormous global shock, leading to steep recessions in many countries. The baseline forecast by the World Bank envisions a 5.2 per cent contraction in global GDP in 2020—the deepest global recession in decades.
World BankJuly 30, 2020
The global COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for better risk management tools to handle longevity and ageing. This paper by Wharton's Olivia Mitchell, offers an assessment of the status quo prior the coronavirus; evaluates how retirement systems are faring in the wake of the shock; examines insurance and financial market products that may render retirement systems more resilient for the world’s ageing population; and looks at the potential role for policymakers.
Olivia MitchellJuly 21, 2020
For the economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis to be durable and resilient, a return to ‘business as usual’ and environmentally destructive investment patterns and activities must be avoided. To avoid this, economic recovery packages should be designed to “build back better”.
OECDJuly 15, 2020
As policymakers consider policy interventions to support the recovery, investors should be engaging policymakers by providing technical expertise and allocating capital to sustainable investments. A new report by PRI presents a series of recommendations for investor policy engagement and indicative proposals for action.
PRIJuly 7, 2020
A new report by Mercer, COVID-19 – Investment Governance and Strategy to Navigate a Pandemic-Driven Market Crisis, examines how large asset owners are finding ways to pursue attractive risk-adjusted investment returns while also taking investment actions to help mitigate and address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through investment governance.
Amanda WhiteJune 2, 2020
During the current COVID 19 environment, investment in infrastructure should be leveraged as an opportunity to keep people employed, keep businesses afloat and to maintain the productive capacity of the economy.
DeloitteMay 27, 2020
This note provides the IMF and the World Bank staff’s high-level recommendations and guidance on the appropriate regulatory and supervisory responses for the banking sector and offers an overview of measures taken across jurisdictions to date.
IMFMay 22, 2020
COVID-19 is taking its toll on the world, causing deaths, illnesses and economic despair. But how is the deadly virus impacting global poverty? The World Bank argues that it is pushing about 40-60 million people into extreme poverty, with its best estimate being 49 million.
World BankMay 18, 2020
The HBS Global Policy Tracker is an initiative to collect and standardise economic policies implemented around the world as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and lockdowns. The data is updated in real-time with the efforts of several dozen students and staff at Harvard Business School and other Harvard Schools.
Harvard Business SchoolMay 5, 2020
This research studies the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. The model implies that people’s decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic.
National Bureau of Economic ResearchApril 30, 2020
The global economic shutdown triggered by COVID-19 has put the North American private debt industry to its first major test. What lessons can be learned from the global financial crisis that are relevant today? What lessons are emerging as a result of COVID-19? And how might the industry evolve?
PreqinApril 30, 2020
The global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 per cent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalises, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial.
IMFApril 29, 2020
The PRI is working with signatories to further develop thinking on what the COVID-19 crisis means for investors. It is establishing two signatory participation groups to coordinate and develop investor responses, focusing on short term responses, and a future economic recovery phase.
PRIApril 29, 2020
This OECD note provides illustrative estimates of the initial direct impact of shutdowns, based on an analysis of sectoral output and consumption patterns across countries and an assumption of common effects within each sector and spending category in all countries.
OECDApril 29, 2020
The authors study whether during the 2020 COVID-19 induced market crash, investors differentiate across companies based on a firm’s human capital, supply chain and operating crisis response.
Harvard University and State Street AssociatesApril 29, 2020
The Milken Institute is tracking the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19. There are currently more than 2.5 million confirmed cases globally, 114 treatments in consideration and 79 vaccines in development.
Milken InstituteApril 28, 2020
In this memo Bill Gates shares his views of how to accelerate global innovation, which is the key to limiting the damage to society and the economy. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.
Bill GatesApril 28, 2020
This report argues the G20 not only should but can be meaningfully useful to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It looks at the role of G20 in designing a fiscal response, strengthening access to vital medical supplies and ensuring global food security.
Peterson Institute for International EconomicsApril 22, 2020
This paper identifies three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures and illustrate how they can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. It implies a year-on-year contraction in US real GDP of nearly 11 per cent as of 2020 Q4
National Bureau of Economic ResearchApril 20, 2020
This paper argues that the COVID-19 pandemic is an inevitable result of globalisation and that the pandemic, in turn, has seriously threatened the world’s globalisation, but adverse effects on globalisation will be temporary.
Amin Yacoub and Mohamed El-ZomorApril 11, 2020