COVID-19 Research Hub

COVID-induced economic uncertainty

This paper identifies three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures and illustrate how they can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. It implies a year-on-year contraction in US real GDP of nearly 11 per cent as of 2020 Q4