As stagflationary shocks flip stock-bond correlations and the illiquidity premium in private markets proves elusive, the investors best placed to navigate a fragmented world are those with the governance infrastructure to deploy capital when others are forced to sell.
Europe's ability to contain inflation hangs on key variables including the energy crisis, central banks' ability to anchor expectations and the ability to stop it spinning into demand for higher wages, argues Clemens Kool, Professor of Macroeconomics and International Monetary Economics, Maastricht University.
An overweight position in real assets and private equity, and an underweight to equities and bonds positioned the Ohio School Employees Retirement System for success in the last year but CIO Farouki Majeed is now even more convinced a stagflationary environment is likely and is positioning the fund accordingly.
Raghuram G. Rajan, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago and former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, argues that Federal Reserve policy suggests inflation will start to come down. He reflects on the toxic risk of high levels of leverage combining with asset declines.
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FIS 2026 at Raffles Singapore