Pension plans deal in long-term horizons. It is the nature of our business.

For example, imagine you are a member of OPTrust, the C$20 billion ($15 billion) plan for Ontario’s blue-collar civil servants. You begin contributing to your pension at the start of your career, retire at age 65, and live to the ripe old age of 100. All told, we will have spent as many as 80 years together. That is close to a cradle-to-grave relationship.

It is for this reason that many people think of pension plans as slow-moving organisations. In fact, we are quite the opposite.

At OPTrust, our mission is paying pensions today, preserving them for tomorrow. In the example I just gave, tomorrow might be 80 years down the road. That means we are not only working in today’s economy, but constantly adapting to prepare for the economy of tomorrow as well. Our focus is not the day-to-day fluctuations of the market – we are focused on where the economy is headed in the long term.

We are working in a market that is characterised by disruption, and the best thing to do with disruption is embrace it.

In February 2018, OPTrust announced the formation of EdgeCore Internet Real Estate, a partnership with Mount Elbert Capital Partners and Singapore’s GIC that builds, owns and operates data centres across North America. We are one year into our investment, and we are rolling out campus developments across the US, including Dallas, northern Virginia, Phoenix, Reno and Silicon Valley.

While these campuses comprise buildings or real estate in the traditional sense, we classify our data centres as infrastructure in our portfolio. But it  doesn’t matter how we decide to categorise them. The important thing is we now have exposure to a new and growing asset class and that asset class is data.

In the industrial age, commodities were the raw materials – what companies used to manufacture their products. In the new age of technology, knowledge and information, the raw input is data.

Data centres today are what factories were 50 years ago. They are the factories of the information economy. In the same way that a commodity such as oil would require infrastructure, like a pipeline, to reach the consumer, data centres are now what connects the sender and the recipient. If we think of a pipeline or a transmission line for electricity as infrastructure, it makes sense to think about the connectivity of data in the same way.

More than 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created every day, and 90 per cent of the world’s data was created in the last two years. This is exponential growth. As the demand for data grows, data centres will be an integral part of the infrastructure of storage.

Despite the relatively short time OPTrust has been in this space, we believe it has the potential for significant growth. Speed matters, and location is important for getting data more quickly to users. We believe that we are still in the early innings of the growth story in terms of data demand and intensity.

Smartphones, social media and big data are driving today’s demand and we expect developing technologies such as machine learning, autonomous vehicles and the internet of things to drive demand in the future. There has also been a change in the perceived value of data. Not only are businesses and consumers tracking more data points, but also they are saving that data and continuously re-analysing it to make new, better decisions. If you have ever decided to walk the stairs instead of taking the elevator because of the step counter on your smart watch, then you know what I mean.

Data centres also offer OPTrust a means of diversification, giving exposure to growth drivers and risk factors that are different from our other assets. Security will continue to be a challenge in this space, as will environmental concerns. Rising power costs are a risk as well, so we are looking for utilities that are ahead of the curve and bringing in renewables. We are at a place in the investment cycle where valuations are high across the board, and all asset classes seem expensive. There are risk premia we can gain from development, and the growth prospects in this space are significant.

As a global investor in a broad range of asset classes, we need to ensure that we are invested in the asset classes of the future. The distinctions between infrastructure and real estate aren’t as clear as they used to be, but for us, the debate is almost philosophical. We are not going to allow ourselves to get bogged down by the terminology.

What matters is the opportunity it presents for our members.

By 2020, it is estimated that 1.7MB of data will be created every second for every person on earth. Whether you think of data centres as real estate or infrastructure, the demand for data storage is growing exponentially, and we view that as a significant asset.

James Davis is CIO at OPTrust.

 

The Australian superannuation system, the fourth-largest pool of retirement savings in the world, has been through the ringer (as Australians would say). After The Productivity Commission completed three years of investigation, its final report on super was made public in January and received much criticism from the industry.

Australia’s retirement system, which is compulsory for all working Australians, is lauded as one of the best. To many industry observers, however, the PC missed an opportunity to provide an evidence-based set of improvements.

Michael Rice, chief executive of Australia-based actuarial and consulting firm Rice Warner, provides his thoughts on the PC’s recommendations.

 

In 2016, the Productivity Commission launched an inquiry into the Australian superannuation market. The inquiry consisted of three stages and attempted to develop criteria for assessing efficiency and competitiveness, develop models for allocating default members, and then review the efficiency and competitiveness of the system using criteria developed in stage one.

The PC made its final report public in January. Although the report has been the subject of several uncomplimentary observations from many superannuation experts, the analysis made a major contribution to identifying areas of the system that can and should be improved.

Objectives the PC identified include:

  • removing unnecessary multiple accounts
  • removing poorly targeted life insurance
  • developing good retirement products and strategies
  • eliminating funds with persistently poor investment strategies
  • addressing those funds with fees that are excessive for the services they offer
  • addressing the remaining trail commissions on superannuation accounts.

While the proposed budget changes in 2018, and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s new outcomes tests, address these areas well, there are some issues with the PC’s recommendations and conclusions. These are outlined below.

In the early stages of the inquiry, the PC took the view that the current system was inefficient. It came up with four alternate systems to capture contributions from new entrants. In doing so, it incorrectly assumed that the current structure was broken and could not be remedied with targeted improvements. This was a fundamental flaw, as the PC has ended up recommending a system worse than the current one. Flaws in the PC’s final report included:

  • The best-in-show method:
    • The PC suggested a list of 10 funds that can accept contributions from new entrants. This is an arbitrary number and would lead to severe disruption to the system as oligopolies formed over time, competition was reduced, and systematic risk increased.
    • When the list is reviewed every four years subjectively by non-experts (as they cannot come from the industry), funds would drop out and re-enter the top 10 list. What happens to the members of a fund that dropped out?

Fortunately, no Parliament will pass this deeply flawed recommendation.

 

  • The statement that a person in a poorly performing fund would be A$660,000($470,000) worse off at retirement than a person in a well-performing fund is implausible and suggests that a poor fund would survive for a member’s full career without any intervention from the regulator (and that the member would not notice and change funds).

One of the strangest comments from the PC was the recommendation that the government hold a full inquiry into national savings and retirement before the superannuation guarantee (SG) rises from 9.5 per cent to 12 per cent, which is scheduled for June 2021. The PC’s three years of work provide no insight into the reasoning for this recommendation.

Rice Warner modelling shows that the legislated increase in the SG will not have much impact on the age pension for many years but will reduce it by about 0.1 per cent of GDP in the second half of this century on current means-testing settings (though without the SG, it would rise).

The tax concessions from the increase are more immediate and they will average about 0.22 per cent of GDP throughout this century.

This seems to have been the main reason for the repeated delays to increases to SG but tax concessions are a small cost to pay for the improvement in retirement incomes the SG increase would deliver. We should point out that these values (age pension costs and personal tax concessions) do not need to equate; it is desirable to give tax concessions for those who save and lose access to their funds until they retire.

Research gave the PC the opportunity to define the agenda with a cohesive, evidence-based package of recommendations. Sadly, the growing disconnect between the PC’s analysis and its recommendations means that this opportunity has been lost.

 

Michael Rice is chief executive of Rice Warner, an Australian-based actuarial and consulting firm. He heads up Rice Warner’s public policy work and has undertaken pioneering research into age pension dependency and trends. He sits on the board of the Australian super fund StatePlus.

Our group has often made the case that investment markets are a complex, adaptive system – highly interconnected, non-linear and reflexive. Market behaviour seems, to us, to be much more akin to the natural world than to the metronomic machine of standard economic models.

When you adopt this view of the world, the occasional crisis seems much less surprising. Bubbles and crashes are not anomalies in a complex world. Rather, they are a natural consequence of a system in which the interactions between the parts are more important than the actions of any part in isolation.

This view also changes the perspective on what creates fragility within the financial system.

It all comes down to feedback loops

Feedback loops come in two varieties. On the one hand, there’s negative feedback: that’s what happens when the reaction of a system to an effect tends to dampen that effect. For example, when a beehive gets too cold, bees react by huddling together and moving around to generate warmth. Negative feedback is a stabilising force.

In investment markets, negative feedback occurs primarily through the value mechanism. When an asset’s price increases, buyers should be less willing to buy and sellers more willing to sell; when the price falls, the opposite occurs. If that happens, then the resulting effect on the balance of supply and demand is to dampen the price movement.

Negative feedback loops create stability. The traditional economic model understands the negative feedback loop.

Things become unpredictable, though, when positive feedback loops start to kick in. Positive feedback is self-reinforcing. In the natural world, it is positive feedback at the molecular level that makes your blood clot and creates storms and hurricanes and tidal waves. Positive feedback is how army ants are mobilised (there’s no central command that issues the call to arms, just a pheromone trail that becomes stronger with each passing soldier).

In the investment world, positive feedback loops create instability. The behaviour of markets is driven by the behaviour of investors – but investor behaviour itself is shaped by the behaviour of markets: a recursive relationship that is known as reflexivity, which can play a role in creating and sustaining positive feedback loops.

There are several sources of positive feedback in investment markets: momentum investing, stop-loss orders and, of course, plain old market sentiment (fear or euphoria). The widespread use in 1987 of portfolio insurance (which responded to a drop in the market by selling) appears to have been a significant contributor to that year’s 20 per cent single-day drop in the US equity market and even bigger declines in many other markets. The flash crash of 2010 seems to have followed a similar pattern at a greatly accelerated rate (it lasted barely half an hour). Positive feedback on that occasion seems to have come from high-frequency algorithmic trading.

Homogeneity and instability

The balance between positive and negative feedback in global investment markets is constantly shifting. An important factor in that balance is homogeneity: how diverse is the system? How independently do participants think?

If investors globally focus on different data, if they tend to have different assumptions about the world, if their sentiment is determined by different factors, then they are likely to respond to market developments differently. But the more they resemble one another and the more their actions are driven by the same considerations, the more they’ll move in lockstep. And that makes positive feedback loops more likely, and the financial system more fragile.

The relationship between homogeneity of investor behaviour and market fragility has been illustrated via agent-based modelling; for example, by Blake LeBaron in the paper Financial Market Efficiency in a Coevolutionary Environment. He observes that crashes in his simulated market are generally preceded by a drop-off in the variety of trading strategies that are being followed. The likely explanation: “During the run-up to a crash, population diversity falls. Agents begin to use very similar trading strategies as their common good performance begins to self-reinforce.” As a result, liquidity declines and markets become brittle.

Today’s investment community is truly global but it’s also closely connected. Those making decisions for the largest pools of capital all around the world are increasingly drawn from similar backgrounds, and increasingly go through the same training. They are influenced by the same things, subject to the same trends and fashions, and are each aware of what others are doing. Taking a different point of view from everyone else is difficult, and potentially a career risk.

A more homogenous world is a more fragile world. That’s one more reason it’s important for the investment community to be diverse and for independent thinking to thrive.

A globally interconnected financial world might sound cool. But it has its dangers as well as its benefits.

By Bob Collie is head of research at the Thinking Ahead Group.

The first challenge for anyone connected with the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI) is to explain what it is. TPI is a simple but powerful open-access tool for asset owners and fund managers to map what the transition to a low-carbon economy looks like for companies in high-emitting sectors. TPI uses publicly disclosed information, collected by FTSE Russell and validated by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics.

This research enables investors and other stakeholders to make informed judgements about how companies with the biggest impact on climate change are adapting their business models to prepare for a transition to low carbon, supporting efforts to address climate change. The TPI is less than two years old and is already supported by investors representing more than $13 trillion in assets under management, including the likes of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), Legal & General Investment Management, Willis Towers Watson, BNP Paribas Asset Management, AP1, AP3, AP4, and its founders – the Church of England National Investing Bodies and the Environment Agency Pension Fund.

Expanding our ambition

Even fast-growing initiatives do not have it made. My first aim as the new director of TPI is to expand our reach by bringing more investors on board from all corners of the world. Climate change is a global issue and TPI needs to attract more investor supporters globally, particularly from Asia and the US. The need for a more global reach applies to the companies we assess, too.

A particular focus is Asia. Half of the world’s top six emitters are from Asia, and we need investors there to use their influence to improve climate-related financial reporting and, in time, to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy.

My second goal is to broaden and deepen the scope of our research. To date, we’ve paid close attention to carbon-intense sectors such as automobile, paper, steel, cement, and oil and gas. It’s encouraging to see this research paying off, with the likes of Shell recently committing to strong, long-term carbon emissions targets. We are now setting our sights on other high-polluting sectors, such as aviation and aluminium, with plans to tackle chemicals and agriculture further down the line.

TPI also needs to look beyond the biggest corporations. To date, our sector-based research has tended to focus on the largest companies by market capitalisation; however, it is important that we also look at those companies that may be less valuable but just as significant to achieving the Paris Agreement goals. This is important not only in expanding the total amount of global emissions that we assess, but also in helping more investors understand the climate performance of more of the companies in their portfolio.

The challenges ahead

Most things worth doing are not without difficulty.

Getting our hands on meaningful carbon and environmental data, particularly in emerging markets, is perhaps our biggest challenge. We need more investors to use their influence as shareholders and owners to urge better disclosure from companies through platforms like the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP).Regulation and carbon pricing also have a role to play in encouraging more and higher-quality disclosure on greenhouse-gas emissions.

Finally, we mustn’t ignore those sectors where it is more difficult to assess climate performance. Finance, for example, may have relatively low direct emissions, but it provides the funds behind some of the largest climate culprits. Of course, it’s harder to reliably assess the environmental performance of companies that are one step back from the frontline on climate, but we are determined to do so.

As we move into our next phase of development, our ultimate aim is for the TPI to become the ‘go to’ tool capital markets use globally to assess where they are on the transition to a low-carbon economy. It’s a critical part of the puzzle if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. I look forward to embracing both the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Nadine Viel Lamare is director of the Transition Pathway

Read more at: www.transitionpathwayinitiative.org

Northern LGPS, the UK’s £45 billion ($58 billion) new asset pool combining Merseyside, West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester pension funds, has a different approach to pooling.

While the other seven mega pools to emerge from the original 91 local authority schemes have begun transitioning assets to single Financial Conduct Authority-regulated companies, re-tendered portfolios, moved to shared offices or set about nurturing new cultures into life, Northern is following its own low-cost, business-as-usual model, says councillor Paul Doughty, who combines his day job as a chartered surveyor with a busy political life. His role as councillor for the greater Liverpool region involves being chair at Merseyside Pension Fund, the Local Authority Pension Fund Forum (LAPFF) and, most significant of all, chair of Northern LGPS, the UK’s largest public-sector pension fund.

“Currently, each of the funds in Northern LGPS still manages its assets separately with its own CIO and staff,” Doughty says. “We have appointed a common custodian and expect all assets to have transitioned to it over the next 12 months. We are working to combine assets, but we believe we can achieve the government’s objectives without a FCA-regulated company; it’s a cost we don’t believe we need to take on board.”

He’s referring to new asset managers other pools have set up to handle their joint assets in a single pot. These managers allow member funds to set their own strategic asset allocations but run the investments, including selection of other managers.

Infrastructure and private equity

Northern LGPS has interpreted the government’s 2015 pooling guidelines to the letter, Doughty says. It has met the £25 billion ($32 billion) target for each pool, cut costs and boosted infrastructure investment. Most notably via GLIL Infrastructure, a partnership started by London Pensions Fund Authority and Greater Manchester Pension Fund before the pooling process; Merseyside, West Yorkshire and now Lancashire Pension Fund have joined the partnership. So far, it has invested £1 billion in eight projects, spanning a port business, stakes in the 523MW Clyde wind facility in Scotland, and train rolling stock.

“It’s done well. People see us as someone to turn to for investment,” Doughty says.

Last year, Northern also set up Northern Private Equity Pool. It brings the private equity allocations of the three funds into a single structure, hastening a move from fund of funds to co-investment, and has so far committed £320 million ($413 million) to five funds. The pool is also building a holistic sustainability strategy, Doughty says.

“As a pool, we have a joint responsible investment policy,” he explains.

This includes a decarbonisation target. All assets are to be compatible with the net zero-emissions ambition outlined in the Paris Agreement by 2050.

“We hold our managers accountable for how they incorporate and monitor climate change in our investment processes and as chair of the pool, I personally engage with companies in this regard,” Doughty says.

Doughty is concerned none of this will be enough. His worry is that the government’s informal consultation on statutory guidance for asset pooling – which started in January and runs until the end of March and offers no certainty about when formal guidance will emerge – will introduce a “prescriptive ideology” and “narrow guidelines”.

That could discount Northern’s progress and compliance with the original criteria as laid out and force the pool to create a regulated company and introduce a cost it doesn’t need to bear.

“We need to ensure our governance model is accepted and the pool can continue its own direction of travel,” he says.

Costs

Cost savings, he says, lie at the heart of the Northern model. He puts cost savings last year in excess of £22 million, from the benefits of scale and Northern’s ability to negotiate better fees in infrastructure and, increasingly, private equity. Compare that with numbers from funds like the £43 billion ($55.4 billion) Border to Coast, made up of 12 like-minded pension funds, which estimates an original savings of £27 million ($34.8 million) annually by 2021, increasing to £55.2 million ($71.1 million) by 2030.

Northern has spent less than £1 million ($1.2 million) on pooling so far and it forecasts that costs will grow only to £1.8 million ($2.3 million). None of its three funds has embarked on recruitment drives or created overarching new roles, and each remains in its own offices. Merseyside and West Yorkshire are a couple of hours apart from each other and staff travel to pool meetings at Greater Manchester’s Tameside offices.

“We don’t want to spend £6 million-odd unnecessarily on the cost of creating a pool and managing offices and facilities that erode our savings,” Doughty says.

He predicts a day of reckoning for some funds that have taken that step.

“Many funds may have made savings, but it is unclear how much it will have cost them to achieve. This is where we have genuine concerns about what we’ve been asked to do.”

His eye on costs also makes him sceptical of the pooling benefit to be had beyond Northern’s three funds’ illiquid allocations.

“Our intention is to pool all assets where there is a value for money justification,” he says. “Due to our existing scale and low cost, the significant majority of the benefits of pooling for the funds in Northern LGPS relate to alternative assets where there is greatest scope to generate further economies of scale.”

He believes Northern’s frugality is a good example of the cultural bond that already exists between the three funds and forgoes the need to hone a new brand. The shared industrial heritage, reflected in the three simple cogs in Northern’s new logo, is another.

“When we chose our dance partners and sat down and thought about whom we could work with and whom we are like, we always thought Manchester and Merseyside and West Yorkshire would work well. We are a natural fit because of where we all come from.”

Left behind

Bi-monthly pool meetings in Manchester involve the funds’ directors and various investment staff, overseen by a joint committee made up of six councillors (two from each fund) and three elected union representatives. Doughty, who says his primary job is holding the fund’s investment officers and fund managers to account, worries that the new structures and processes emerging from the pooling process have left democratically elected local government members, who are often without investment expertise, behind.

“I’ve never made an investment decision, because it’s not a councillor’s role to do this,” he says. “Our role is to hold officers to account and I believe there is a concern among representative authorities within pools that some have lost sight of where they are going.”

There is no one approach to governance across the LGPS pools. The draft guidance states that “pool members must establish and maintain a pool governance body in order to set the direction of the pool and to hold the pool company to account”.

Doughty believes other concerned councillors will increasingly voice their priorities, similar to the way he has been determined to have the government allow Northern to take its own route.

“Some people think politicians should get out of the LGPS, but we think the role for elected members is important,” he says. “I believe elected members in some funds are starting to wake up and ask what direction their pool is going in.”

Recognising that most asset owners have multiple, and competing, time horizons is a step in the right direction for managing risk over the long term.

A new paper by Focusing Capital on the Long Term (FCLT) acknowledges that investors typically have competing time frames while most of the tools for risk and performance management are for only one investment period.

The paper, Balancing Act: Managing risk across multiple time horizons, gives investors, from boards to investment personnel, much-needed practical tools and processes to address this issue successfully.

For this paper, FCLT called on its members that are large, long-term asset owners. They have indicated the challenge of managing multiple horizons as central to their ability to take advantage of their long-term horizons.

FCLT, therefore, sees improving risk management across multiple time horizons as a key lever for extending investment time frames, ultimately resulting in more value for stakeholders.

Chief executive of FCLT, Sarah Williamson, says there are many barriers to managing multiple time horizons. Specifically, it requires overcoming behavioural tendencies, the limits of typical measures of risk and communication issues.

“Everyone says they’re a long-term investor and they mostly are, when things are doing well,” Williamson says. “But when there is a bump, they get scared and act and think short term, often at the wrong time, when long-horizon investors should be seeing buying opportunities.

“Some investors have very good systems to, for example, rebalance into weaknesses. But people are still people and one point of this paper is to set up those processes in advance of when you need them. I would argue it is easier to have this conversation when returns are good, rather than in the midst of a correction, when you need them.”

The suite of tools ranges from foundational to complex and gives investors a guide to what their peers are implementing around the globe.

“We are not trying to say there is a right answer, but these are the tools investors in the world use to deal with different time horizons,” she says.

One of the key things to recognise is that risk-management tools have typically grown up in banking or trading environments, which are short term by nature. The tools for measuring and managing performance and risk over the long term are evolving, with a new focus on the inputs, rather than the outputs (see Metrics for managing long-term performance).

The FCLT paper outlines tools for use across a number of categories: objective and strategy setting; decision management; risk anticipation; and risk and performance measurement.

The “risk conversation guide” is on such tool, which addresses communication.

One big contributor to short-term behaviour, the paper states, is miscommunication between board and staff.

Staff tend to speak to the board using in-depth technical language that may not clearly show long-term implications of the portfolio.

Williamson says that, because of this miscommunication, board members can be surprised by portfolio movements after a market stress event and potentially make short term-focused adjustments to portfolio risk.

FCLT has developed the risk conversation guide to address this, and help boards and staff improve their communication.

“One tip we give is for boards and staff to have those risk conversations in real English,” Williamson says. “Our risk conversation guide outlines some questions a board can ask in very straightforward terms.”

FCLTGlobal is also working on a scorecard project that defines what a long-term asset owner, manager or company looks like.

 

Sarah Williamson will be part of a panel discussion on practical tips for long-term investing at the Fiduciary Investors Symposium, Cambridge University, April 7-9. For more information or to register, click here