We are now at a turning point, with Democrats controlling both legislative chambers and the presidency, and an emerging concensus among Democratic policy makers and their advisors that enables fiscal spending that is both significant in size and ambitious in scope. Later this year, we expect to see the first expansionary fiscal package centered around the pursuing long-term social, environmental, and competitiveness policy goals (following the more immediate COVID recovery package). In these Observations, we explore two key shifts in Democrats’ thinking underlying these policy proposals, which we expect will be sustained well beyond this fiscal package.

The ultimate goal of economic policy is simple and timeless – to ensure prosperity and maximise living standards. Broad macroeconomic measures such as GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation had for decades been a good proxy of rising prosperity, so they have dominated economic policy making and are enshrined in most central bank mandates. But even before the COVID-19 crisis, it had become clear that traditional economic measures have increasingly diverged from social outcomes.

Over the past two decades, China’s secular rise dominated commodity markets, as its industrialization required a massive amount of raw materials to build up the country. As we consider the future, we see many reasons to be bullish on commodities tactically, but one of the most important secular factors will likely support industrial commodity demand for years to come: the shift in global economies away from fossil fuels and toward greener energy.

Throughout its history, the U.S. domestic Asset Management Industry, projected by PwC to grow to $71.2 trillion in assets under management by 20251, has exhibited an empirical lack of diversity with respect to gender and ethnicity within its ranks. Numerous studies have shown that Women and People of Color (“POC”) are underrepresented in the Industry, including a 2019 study commissioned by the Knight Foundation finding that Asset Management firms owned substantially or majority-owned by Women or POC managed only 1.3% of the Industry’s total assets under management.

2020 underlined just how closely connected the world is. The pandemic broke out in a market in China but quickly spread to the rest of the world. The health crisis soon escalated into a serious economic crisis – a crisis of which we still do not know the full consequences of. Being able to act quickly and safely in a changing world is more important than ever. Many of PensionDanmark’s members and companies have endured periods of lockdown, and jobs have been lost as a consequence. The hotel and restaurant industry, the transport industry and the many employees at Denmark’s airports have been particularly hard hit. Many of the companies that were not shut down had to implement restrictions and other measures to protect themselves against COVID-19.

The incorporation of ESG factors within the investment process has evolved from a nice-to-have to a necessity. Client demand has grown strongly, with 68% of the PRI’s asset owner signatory base addressing ESG considerations in their requests for proposals (RFPs). This means that many asset owners expect investment managers to include financially material ESG factors within their funds and investment strategies. In addition, policy makers around the world are introducing regulatory requirements for both investment managers and asset owners to disclose and report on responsible investment practices.