COVID-19 Research Hub

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Pandemic I: The first modern pandemic

In this memo Bill Gates shares his views of how to accelerate global innovation, which is the key to limiting the damage to society and the economy. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.

COVID-induced economic uncertainty

This paper identifies three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys – that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures and illustrate how they can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. It implies a year-on-year contraction in US real GDP of nearly 11 per cent as of 2020 Q4