A geostrategic standoff between the US and China over AI would be “extremely damaging for capital owners” according to the Future Fund, Australia’s A$337 billion ($237 billion) sovereign wealth fund, which outlined four “secular scenarios” around AI and its investment implications.
Scenario analysis shows that the ability of pension funds to pay their pensions will be severely impacted by climate. But a discussion between asset owners at Sustainability in Practice revealed the challenges in the process.
A U-shaped recovery is the most likely economic outcome in the US for the next two years, but stagflation has a higher than anticipated chance of occurring according to a new paper about scenario analysis co-authored by State Street and GIC researchers. The study revolutionises scenario analysis by reorienting it towards a path.
Attempts to apply a formula to asset allocation based on an asset’s historical volatility and relationship with other assets tend to fail when presented with black-swan events. Equities tend to rise along with commodities except when presented with political events such as the price hikes in oil in 1973 that sent equities into free fall.
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