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FIS Digital – December 2020

Scenario analysis tool predicts U-shape

A U-shaped recovery is the most likely economic outcome in the US for the next two years, but stagflation has a higher than anticipated chance of occurring according to a new paper about scenario analysis co-authored by State Street and GIC researchers. The study revolutionises scenario analysis by reorienting it towards a path.
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Scenario analysis: applicable to anything?

Attempts to apply a formula to asset allocation based on an asset’s historical volatility and relationship with other assets tend to fail when presented with black-swan events. Equities tend to rise along with commodities except when presented with political events such as the price hikes in oil in 1973 that sent equities into free fall. […]